Who Will Open as the #1 Team in the AP College Football Poll?

The first AP Top 25 poll of the 2026 college football season is approaching, giving voters their first chance to rank a strong group of national championship contenders. Unlike the College Football Playoff rankings, which are based on what happens during the season, the preseason AP poll is driven by returning production, roster talent, and expectations.

Last year's finalists in Indiana & Miami lost key pieces, including starting quarterbacks, opening the door for other teams. Ohio State is the clear favorite to open at No. 1, but Notre Dame and Oregon both return experienced quarterbacks from teams that entered last season with championship expectations. These are three programs that always have national championship aspirations, and expect that to be represented with the preseason rankings. Let’s examine the three favorites according to Kalshi and the argument for each team leading the first AP poll.

It is easy to see why Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite. The Buckeyes return one of the best quarterback-receiver combinations in college football, with Julian Sayin throwing to Jeremiah Smith for another season. Sayin led the country with a 77% completion rate in 2025 while throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns. Smith added 1,243 receiving yards and 12 scores during another All-American season. Running back Bo Jackson also returns after emerging as a major part of the offense.

Ohio State fell short of defending its national championship last season, losing to Miami in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. However, that result may not carry much weight with voters when compared to the talent coming back. The Buckeyes had five players named preseason First-Team All-Big Ten by The Athletic, including Sayin, Smith, and Jackson.

The combination of proven stars, overall roster depth, and Ohio State’s recent track record makes the Buckeyes the safest choice for the top spot. A November matchup with Oregon will eventually settle plenty on the field, but Ohio State has the strongest case entering the season.

Notre Dame’s case starts with CJ Carr, who is entering his second full season as the starting quarterback. Carr completed 66.7% of his passes for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2025, becoming one of the most productive young quarterbacks in the country. With a full year of experience behind him, he should be ready to take another step.

The Fighting Irish also continue to recruit at an elite level under Marcus Freeman and have become one of the most consistent programs in the country. However, voters may hesitate to put Notre Dame ahead of Ohio State after the Irish finished 10-2 and missed the College Football Playoff last season. The offense must also replace running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, leaving some uncertainty around Carr.

Notre Dame has enough talent to receive first-place votes, especially from voters who expect Carr to make a major leap. The Irish may not be favorites to open as the #1 team, but a much easier schedule than Ohio State may increase their odds to land there at some point during the season.

Oregon came closer to the national championship than either Ohio State or Notre Dame last season. The Ducks finished 13-2 and reached the College Football Playoff semifinals before losing to eventual champion Indiana (who was also their other loss of the season). That run should keep them near the top of preseason ballots.

The biggest reason for optimism is the return of Dante Moore. Rather than leave for the NFL and become the 2nd QB off the board, Moore is back after completing nearly 72% of his passes for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2025. The Ducks also return several important contributors on both sides of the ball, giving Dan Lanning another roster capable of competing for the Big Ten and national titles.

Oregon’s argument is built around its playoff run, returning quarterback, and consistency under Lanning. The Ducks may not have quite as many recognizable stars as Ohio State, but there is little separating the two teams on paper. If voters place more weight on last season’s results than individual star power, Oregon could make the opening poll much closer than the Kalshi odds suggest.