Bear Bryant Award Odds - Freeman Opens Season as Favorite

The Bear Bryant Coach of the Year race enters the 2026 season without a clear favorite. Five coaches currently sit between a 10% and 25% chance on Kalshi, with Marcus Freeman leading a field filled almost entirely with coaches expected to contend for the College Football Playoff.

Freeman has a strong lead on the market at 25%, followed by new Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham, who has recently risen to 16%. Steve Sarkisian (13%), Dan Lanning (11%), and defending winner Curt Cignetti (10%) round out the top five.

With all five coaching teams carrying major expectations into the season, the award could ultimately come down to who best exceeds them or who puts together the deepest postseason run.

Let’s take a closer look at the five early favorites.

Freeman has the easiest case to understand. Notre Dame begins the season ranked #4 after going 10-2 and narrowly missing the playoff last year. Quarterback CJ Carr is also back after throwing 24 touchdowns in his first season as the starter. 

Carr is currently leading Kalshi's Heisman odds, meaning the market is bullish on the Fighting Irish early on.

Only three teams on Notre Dame’s schedule are currently ranked in the preseason top 25, giving the Irish a likely path to 11 or 12 wins and a Playoff berth. 

The problem is that they are expected to be this good. A playoff appearance alone probably won’t be enough. Freeman likely needs another semifinal run, if not a return to the national championship game.

He is the rightful favorite, but 25% is still aggressive for any coach before Week 1.

Whittingham has the cleanest Coach of the Year path, if this is anything like the NFL Coach of the Year race. Michigan is ranked #16 after two disappointing seasons, and he is taking over a young roster led by sophomore quarterback Bryce Underwood. 

Whittingham also won this exact award in 2008 after leading Utah to an undefeated season. 

After 20 years with Utah (where he won this award in 2008), the expectations in Ann Arbor will be a new challenge.

Michigan’s schedule is a gauntlet, with Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Penn State all waiting. That makes a playoff run difficult, but it also gives Whittingham plenty of opportunities for signature wins.

If Michigan goes 10-2 and reaches the playoff in his first season, 16% could look low.

Texas starts the season ranked #5 after going 9-3 and missing the playoffs in 2025. The Longhorns are loaded again and will have a ton of spotlight on them as Arch Manning is slated as the early #1 Pick for next year's NFL Draft.

But they face seven preseason-ranked opponents, including #1 Ohio State and six SEC teams.

That schedule gives Sarkisian a strong case if Texas survives it. Winning the SEC with one or two losses would be impressive, and a deep playoff run could push him to the top of the voting.

Still, Texas is already viewed as a championship contender. Merely returning to the playoffs would feel more like meeting expectations than exceeding them.

The pressure is on the Longhorns this year, and Sark and Arch will be at the center of that frenzy.

Oregon enters at #2, the highest preseason ranking in program history, after reaching the playoff semifinal last season. Quarterback Dante Moore is back, and the Ducks have the talent to justify those expectations.

That makes Lanning's Ducks a strong national-title candidate, but it also works against him in this market. An 11-win season and another playoff appearance would mostly meet expectations. He probably needs to win the Big Ten or reach the Natty.

Lanning may actually be more likely to win the title than this award, which makes 11% feel high.

Cignetti has the strangest case of the five. Indiana went 16-0, won its first national championship, and made him the 2025 Bear Bryant winner. He also became the first coach to ever win AP Coach of the Year in consecutive seasons.

You can't improve on perfection, so Cignetti’s path is instead proving Indiana can sustain its success. 

The Hoosiers begin at #6 but must replace Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza with TCU transfer Josh Hoover. They still return a strong core, including five players selected for The Athletic’s preseason All-America teams, tied with Oregon for the most representation on that list.

Another playoff run after losing Mendoza would confirm that Indiana’s rise is bigger than one historic team and solidify Cignetti as the face of College Football's coaching landscape in the post-Saban world. 

At 10%, Cignetti is difficult to dismiss, even if repeating likely requires another trip deep into January.