Odds to Win the Pac-12: Boise & OSU Becoming Two-Horse Race

The Pac-12 is back, somewhat. Oregon State and Washington State now have six new conference opponents: Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State, and Texas State. Besides Texas State, the rest are coming over from the Mountain West Conference. There still aren’t 12 teams as the name implies, but eight is a pretty big improvement over two.

While it's far from the biggest conference in college football, the new Pac-12 (or 8) should bring in some more eyes. It's caught the attention of plenty of people on Kalshi, with over $728,000 in trading volume on a market for the winner of the conference. Let's look at the teams, new and old, with the best odds to win the Pac-12 this coming season.

The Broncos remain the team to beat, but Oregon State has shot up in odds due to an explosive passing game.

New conference, same old Boise State. The Broncos are 5-1 overall and 2-0 in Pac-12 play after beating Fresno State 38-31 on the road. That ended a three-game losing streak against the Bulldogs and gave Boise State its most important conference win so far.

The leading rusher in college football, Dylan Riley, ran for 150 yards and added a 44-yard touchdown catch, while Sire Gaines returned from injury with 120 rushing yards and a score. Fresno State’s defense had been the toughest in the conference, but apparently nobody told Boise State’s running backs.

Maddux Madsen added 238 passing yards and two touchdowns without an interception. He has now started all six games without throwing a pick, setting a Boise State record. While Madsen has been good, the running game is the factor that makes Boise State the team to beat.

At 55%, the Broncos remain the deserved favorite. They’ve beaten a serious challenger away from home, and their balance gives them more ways to win.

Oregon State went 2-10 last season. Now the Beavers are 4-2 overall and 2-0 in conference play, have won four straight, and just beat San Diego State 66-14. Following a 56-point performance at Colorado State with 66 more at home is a pretty good way to get people’s attention.

New head coach JaMarcus Shephard has brought energy back to Corvallis, but this is becoming more than a nice culture-change story. The Beavers are taking teams apart, and their quarterback-receiver duo keeps putting up ridiculous numbers.

Braden Atkinson threw for 409 yards and five touchdowns against the Aztecs, giving him 21 touchdown passes through six games. Jesse Legree caught 10 passes for 191 yards and three scores, becoming the first Beaver with six consecutive 100-yard receiving games. Remember, he’s a true freshman.

Legree now leads the nation with 932 receiving yards and has 12 touchdown catches, already within reach of Brandin Cooks’ school record of 16.

The team still has to answer the stronger-opposition question, but 35% shows it's becoming a real threat to Boise State. Washington State visits next, giving the Beavers another chance to keep this rolling. Last year’s mess feels a long way away.

Fresno State had its chance to knock off the favorite, but Boise State left town with a 38-31 win. The Bulldogs are now 4-2 overall and 1-1 in Pac-12 play, and their path to the title has become considerably tougher.

The biggest concern was how Boise State handled their defense. Fresno State entered with an impressive defensive résumé, then allowed more than 500 total yards. When the Bulldogs needed the ball back late, the Broncos kept running and took most of the remaining clock with them.

There were positives. Jayden Mandal threw for 218 yards, Ezekiel Avit had 96 receiving yards, and Fresno State kept fighting after falling behind 35-20. Losing by seven to Boise State doesn’t suddenly make the Bulldogs a bad team. But it does leave them chasing two unbeaten conference contenders, with a head-to-head loss to one already on the books.

At 6%, Fresno State is still in the conversation, but the path to the Pac-12 Championship may no longer be in their hands.