Odds to Win the Pac-12: Boise & OSU Becoming Two-Horse Race

The Pac-12 is back, somewhat. Oregon State and Washington State now have six new conference opponents: Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State, and Texas State. Besides Texas State, the rest are coming over from the Mountain West Conference. There still aren’t 12 teams as the name implies, but eight is a pretty big improvement over two.

While it's far from the biggest conference in college football, the new Pac-12 (or 8) should bring in some more eyes. It's caught the attention of plenty of people on Kalshi, with over $950,000 in trading volume on a market for the winner of the conference. Let's look at the teams, new and old, with the best odds to win the Pac-12 this coming season.

The Broncos remain the team to beat, but Oregon State has shot up in the odds due to an explosive passing game.

Boise State is 7-1 overall and 4-0 in Pac-12 play, but getting there was considerably more stressful than it needed to be. The Broncos led Texas State 28-3 at halftime, somehow fell behind 39-28, then escaped with a 46-45 win. Apparently, even Boise isn’t immune to Pac-12 After Dark.

The defense suddenly looks a lot more beatable. Though, one of the Bobcats’ scores came on a pick-six, so the defense doesn’t deserve all the blame. Still, letting a comfortable home win turn into that kind of shootout should give the other contenders some encouragement.

Maddux Madsen also threw his first interception of the season before leaving with a knee injury. Fortunately, he avoided a serious injury and is considered day-to-day. Backup Max Cutforth deserves plenty of credit for throwing three late touchdown passes to rescue the win, but Madsen’s health adds another concern heading into November.

The Broncos still have the strongest position in this race, and Oregon State still has to visit Boise. Their running game and quarterback depth give them reasons to remain confident. Texas State just made it pretty clear that winning this conference won’t be automatic.

Oregon State’s five-game winning streak ended with a 38-22 loss at Fresno State, dropping the Beavers to 5-3 overall and 3-1 in conference play. After weeks of putting up ridiculous offensive numbers, they finally ran into a defense that made them uncomfortable.

Braden Atkinson still threw for 373 yards, extending his streak of 300-yard games to eight. But Oregon State needed 59 attempts to get there, managed just 77 rushing yards and lost two fumbles. Fresno State also recorded five sacks. The Beavers could move the ball, but too many possessions ended without much to show for it.

Jesse Legree’s streak of 100-yard games ended at seven, with the freshman finishing with 70 yards and no touchdowns. It turns out that Fresno State's defensive back did in fact want "all the smoke' with Legree. That hardly erases what he and Atkinson have accomplished, but it does show how much Oregon State needs from its star duo when the running game isn’t helping.

JaMarcus Shephard’s turnaround still deserves plenty of credit after last year’s 2-10 mess. The Beavers remain in the championship hunt, with Texas State coming to Corvallis before a trip to Boise. Those games now carry a little more pressure. Another conference loss would leave them with much less control over how this season ends.

Texas State fell to 4-4 overall and 2-2 in conference play after a painful 46-45 loss at Boise State. The Bobcats erased a 28-3 halftime deficit and took a fourth-quarter lead, only to let Boise’s backup quarterback throw three late touchdowns. That one is going to sting.

Brad Jackson threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns, adding another score on the ground. GJ Kinne’s offense can clearly cause problems for anyone in this conference. The defense just needs to give it a little more help finishing games.

Trips to Oregon State and then a home matchup with Fresno State leave little room to recover. Both conference losses have come by two points or fewer, but close doesn’t do much for the standings. Texas State is dangerous enough to shake up the race, even if its own path to the championship game is getting difficult.