The Pac is Back! Odds to Win the Pac-12 Championship

A few years back, the Pac-12 was decimated by conference realignment. Only two teams were left behind: Washington State & Oregon State. Obviously, two teams cannot make up an entire conference. To stay alive, the Pac-12 reloaded by adding 6 new teams.

There still aren't 12 as the name implies, but the Pac-12 is back, somewhat. Starting in the 2026 season, Boise State, Fresno State, Texas State, Colorado State, & Utah State are now joining the Cougars and Beavers. Besides Texas State, the rest are coming over from the Mountain West Conference. 

While it's far from the biggest conference in college football, the new Pac-12 (or 8) should bring in some more eyes. It's caught the attention of plenty of people on Kalshi, with over $130,000 in trading volume. Let's look at the teams, new and old, with the best odds to win the Pac-12 this coming season.

Boise State enters the new Pac-12 as the favorite, which shouldn't surprise anyone. The Broncos won the Mountain West in each of the last three seasons, including a down year by their standards in 2025. While the conference name is changing, most of the teams standing in their way are very familiar.  

Maddux Madsen is back for another season at quarterback, giving Boise State an experienced leader at the most important position. The Broncos are also returning 13 starters from last year's team, tied for the second most among Group of Six programs. After watching so many college football rosters get torn apart by the transfer portal, continuity is a major advantage. The defense may be the biggest reason to believe in Boise State. Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Max Stege give the Broncos arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the conference, while several transfer additions were brought in to improve the secondary. 

Boise State has won at least 9 regular-season games in 20 of the last 27 years. At this point, the Broncos being good is one of the safest bets in college football. Their closest competitors are teams they have regularly handled over the years, and it should remain that way for now.

San Diego State enters the new Pac-12 with some momentum after going 9-4 last season. The Aztecs finally started looking like themselves again, winning games with a strong rushing attack and one of the best defenses outside the Power Four. 

Most of the offense is returning, including quarterback Jayden Denegal, running back Lucky Sutton, and the team's top three wide receivers. Sutton was a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award last season and should remain the centerpiece of the offense. If Denegal can take another step, San Diego State should be much more balanced than it was a year ago. 

The bigger concern is replacing several of the stars from last year's defense. That unit carried the Aztecs for much of the season, including a 23-0 shutout over Fresno State. There is still talent coming back, but expecting the defense to immediately pick up where it left off may be asking too much. 

San Diego State feels like the biggest threat to Boise State, especially with the Broncos coming to Snapdragon Stadium this season. The Aztecs may need more from their passing game, but they already proved they can win without it.

Fresno State is another team entering the Pac-12 after a successful final season in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs went 9-4 in Matt Entz's first year as head coach and finished things off with a win in the Arizona Bowl. That is a pretty strong foundation to build on.

The biggest question is at quarterback. Fresno State is choosing between Jayden Mandal and Maryland transfer Khristian Martin, neither of whom has much experience. Martin attempted just 17 passes during his time with the Terrapins, so there isn't exactly a proven star waiting to take over.

Fortunately, whoever wins the job will have plenty of help. The Bulldogs have a strong backfield and returning receivers. The offensive line also brings back plenty of experience, which should allow Fresno State to lean on the running game while its new quarterback gets comfortable.

The defense should keep the Bulldogs competitive, but the uncertainty at quarterback makes them harder to trust than Boise State or San Diego State. Still, Fresno State has a long history of punching above its weight. The Bulldogs are a legitimate contender, even if they may need to win ugly at times.

Rounding out the list is Washington State, which is the first team here that was a part of the original Pac-12.

When the conference realignment happened, the Cougars were left out, along with Oregon State. You have to give them credit for sticking it out for a rough couple of years, and now making it out to the other side. Hopefully, the promise of a revamped conference has helped Washington State improve their recruiting success, and they can be competitive right away.

The Cougs are bringing in a new head coach and a new starting quarterback. Coach Kirby Moore is coming in from Missouri, as their former OC. Cade Pinnick transferred over from UC Davis, which may be an FCS school, but Pinnick has shown lots of talent.

As a team with 40 total incoming transfers, it will be interesting to see how well Washington State gels as a team. They've done a lot to improve, but will have an uphill battle to win the Pac-12.