Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds: Winners, Prop Picks & More

The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is back for the Fourth of July in 2026, and the stars we're accustomed to watching every year are returning to defend their mustard belts. Joey Chestnut looks for his 18th Hot Dog Eating Contest championship on the men's side, while Miki Sudo aims to win her fifth straight title in the women's contest.

Think you know who will win each contest? Want to make a few bucks betting on the stars, or do you think we're about to see an upset for the ages? Let's break down the Kalshi odds for each contest.

New year, same story. After being banned from the competition in 2024, Joey Chestnut returned to the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2025, bringing home the title once again with 70.5 hot dogs eaten. He's back again in '26 looking for his 18th title, and according to the Kalshi odds, he's the heavy favorite to take home the championship belt once again.

Because Chestnut is such a heavy favorite to win the men's competition again this year, many folks who want to bet or trade on the hot dog eating contest prefer a market that excludes Chestnut altogether, creating a more even playing field with more contenders and more favorable odds. 

Kalshi lets users trade on the contest winner excluding Chestnut, meaning you'd likely be trading on who will come in second place. Here are the current Kalshi odds excluding Chestnut.

On the women's side of the contest, Miki Sudo may not have a trophy case that's quite as stacked as Chestnut's, but with 11 total championships and five straight, she's equally a heavy favorite to bring home the belt once again. Here are the current leaders on the odds board for the women's hot dog eating contest.

Just as they've done in the men's competition, Kalshi has opened up trading markets for women's hot dog eating contest participants excluding Miki Sudo to make things a bit more interesting. 

But while several contestants had increased odds in the men's competition with Chestnut's name eliminated, only two women's contest participants have significant trading odds with the elimination of Sudo.