Brazil World Cup Preview: Local Expert Analyzes the Odds

I would say properly rated. It’s interesting, because I don't think Brazil has been properly rated in a while.

Online sportsbooks rely heavily on tradition, which makes sense, given Brazil has won the most titles, so you tend to believe they will win again. However, international football has changed a lot over the last 20 years.

There has been a significant dial-up in tactical awareness and collective work, areas where Brazil trails behind. The game relies less on individuality and raw talent, which have always been our major strengths.

That said, I believe we belong among the five top favorites, just not in the top two.

I think the Golden Boot is always very difficult to predict. It's common to see unexpected names win it, like James Rodríguez in 2014. That’s why it’s such a popular market with bettors; the winning margins are usually very high.

I believe Brazil has the best attacking front we've had in a long while, so there's certainly some value there with Vinicius, Raphinha, and even Matheus Cunha.

However, weak opponents in the group phase are usually decisive for the Golden Boot, as are consistent penalty takers. Outside of the Haiti match, I don't see Brazil having a high-scoring group stage. It would take a very deep run in the knockout brackets for our strikers to stand a chance against the outright favorites.

Brazil to win the group offers particularly low value, so I would certainly skip that one. The matches against Morocco and Scotland should be very tight, and one unexpected result could easily slide a team into second place. Instead, I see value in the odds of Brazil reaching the last 16 and the quarter-finals.

The most interesting Brazil-related markets I saw were a head-to-head against Argentina, and a special on the best-performing South American nation in the tournament. Both have surprisingly high odds.

The biggest clash I see between the international and local narrative is our actual chance of winning. There is still a prevailing belief that "Brazil is always Brazil," an attacking team that is often reckless defensively.

However, I think we will see a very different style of play and a strong back four with an Italian coach in charge. Brazilian fans believe in the “Hexa,” the sixth star, much more than people do abroad.

The mindset is always focused on the title. Anything less than the trophy is considered a fiasco.

I believe there's a lot of negativity around the Brazilian team internationally right now. The assumption that this isn't a great generation, that Joga Bonito (Beautiful Play) is long gone, and therefore we don’t stand a chance.

While it’s true that the last four years have been very problematic, there is a lot of positivity inside Brazil since the arrival of Ancelotti. We really believe, especially since he knows this group of players so well after coaching several at Real Madrid.

Brazil has won World Cups before without an "amazing" generation and in the face of heavy skepticism, so it can certainly happen again.