Argentina World Cup Odds Preview: Can Messi go Back-to-Back?

It’s reasonable to be behind Spain and France, but I think it’s a bit unfair that Brazil and England are also ahead. While it's clear those two squads (Brazil and England) have immense talent, they haven’t been able to deliver in recent tournaments.

Meanwhile, Argentina proved that not only does it have the talent, but also the ability to win under pressure, especially in knock-out matches.

Personally, I think we can get far in the competition. I’ll be lying if I say I don’t see us winning again, but a lot of things need to align first.

It probably depends on how far France and Spain make it, but this is also a harder World Cup to predict. If Spain were to finish second in their group, we'd play against them in the Round of 32, and we win, I’ll be more inclined to think we can win the whole thing again.

But still, in my opinion, France is the team to beat.

I think Messi already gave us what we needed in the last World Cup, and he finally got the title he deserved. Even if he decided not to play this one, no one would hold it against him, but emotions are definitely running high.

When it comes to football, Argentinians are very irrational, so from a betting perspective, we are willing to bet on anything that supports our team, and I think this will be the case here.

Far from being out of form, I think he gets to the World Cup in great shape. Honestly, I’m not convinced that Lamine Yamal or even Harry Kane can realistically beat him in that race, especially if their chances depend heavily on how far their teams go. Mbappé is probably the only player who stands as a truly direct rival.

Just to play it safe, an interesting market would be for Argentina to make it to the Quarter-Finals. The odds are around +100, not a long shot, but generous for a reigning world champion, where the implied probability sits around just 50%. But if we analyze the road, and assume we play Uruguay in the Round of 32, and then against the winner between Australia, USA, Turkey, or Paraguay, I think we can make it to the quarter-finals comfortably.

I wouldn’t risk betting on making the Semi-Finals because in the Quarter-Finals, we can go against a team like Portugal, which has been our silent rival. They have the talent, and it will probably be Cristiano Ronaldo’s last World Cup. This could be helpful to take the pressure off the younger talents, which is the opposite of what is happening to Spain, for example. Portugal has nothing to lose, and that’s exactly the opponent you don’t want to play against.

Argentinian fans have a mixed emotions when it comes to this one: we know it’s hard to think about winning again, but the hope is always there.

We believe in this team as we did in 2022, and this always plays in our favor. Many say Argentina plays with 12 players because of the fan base, and that is a big asset for us.

Beyond Messi, we have other players who try to convince us we can achieve what nobody’s been able to do since 1962: winning 2 times in a row. Dibu Martínez is a symbol of our fighting spirit. De Paul embodies the engine that never stops running… so, bettors who only look at Messi are missing half the picture. This is a squad, not a one-man show, and that depth is exactly why the fans think we can do it again.

He’s already Jesus, next to Maradona, who is God for us. But, Maradona only did it once, so it would definitely blow the debate wide open between older and younger generations.

For me, what stands out in this case is Messi’s struggle. We’ve already seen him cry and finally get what he wanted. To do it again would make the man into a legend, and I don’t think anyone will be able to top that story.