USA-Türkiye Betting Preview: The Final Match Before Knockouts

After booking an early spot in the knockout stage, the US Men’s National Team has one more piece of Group D business to handle against Türkiye.

The US has been one of the most surprisingly impressive sides of the tournament so far, opening with a 4-1 win over Paraguay before taking care of Australia 2-0. Türkiye, meanwhile, has had the opposite kind of Tournament. Losses to Australia and Paraguay leave them at the bottom of the group, and they still haven’t scored a goal through two matches as one of the most disappointing teams in the entire World Cup.

That sets up an interesting betting spot. The US is the better team and has looked much sharper in this tournament, but Mauricio Pochettino may be tempted to rotate with the knockout rounds ahead.

The US enters this match as a slight favorite, with most sportsbooks giving the hosts the edge to win in Los Angeles.

But this is a very different situation than the first two matches. Against Paraguay and Australia, the US had everything to play for. Here, the motivation is a little less straightforward, which makes taking the US moneyline tricky.

The US has clearly been the better team in this group, and Türkiye’s attack has offered very little so far. However, if Poch rests a few key starters, this could become a slower, more controlled performance rather than another statement win. More like the second half against the Aussies than the first half

Türkiye has enough individual talent to make this uncomfortable, especially with Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız, and Hakan Çalhanoğlu capable of creating something from nothing. Based on what we’ve seen in this tournament, it’s hard to trust them to suddenly solve their issues in the final third, but there's a reason they were the projected Group favorites coming into the Cup.

Either way, I think a draw is the most likely outcome, but would lean towards a double chance for each side.

The case for the over is pretty obvious. The US has scored six goals through two games and has looked dangerous whenever Pulisic, Balogun, and Pepi have had space to run. Türkiye also has to play with some urgency, since they don't want to leave empty-handed, which could open the game up if they start chasing.

The under case is just as reasonable, though. Türkiye has not scored yet, and the US may not need to play at full throttle. If the Americans get ahead early, this could turn into a pretty professional 2-0 type of win.

Still, I'd lean heavily towards taking the over in this one. Even a Haji Wright and Gio Reyna-centered attack will give Türkiye problems, plus Türkiye will be desperate to score.

Pulisic, Balogun, and Pepi are priced like the most likely US scorers, which makes sense on paper. But this is also the final Group match, and the US has already done the important part by reaching the knockout rounds. That means Poch could use this as a chance to manage minutes and keep key players fresh.

That makes Balogun and Pepi a little difficult to bet before starters are announced. Both are obvious scoring threats if they start, but there is a real chance neither gets a full workload. Pulisic is still worth watching at +160, though. He missed the Australia match, so there is a chance Pochettino gives him some minutes to keep him sharp before the knockout stage. 

The problem is that he still would likely not play typical starter minutes.

The two numbers that stand out more are Haji Wright at +650 and Gio Reyna at +900. Wright feels like the kind of player who could benefit from rotation, especially if the US wants a physical forward. Reyna is even more interesting at the price. If he starts, or if the lineup suggests he will play a major role, +900 is a big number for a player with his creativity and ball-striking ability.

These two guys have the best value on the board, and will likely play big minutes leading to their odds dwindling ahead of the match.

The Turkish players are also a bit interesting at their high price points, given the fact that they weill be desperate for goals to avoid utter embarrassment before flying home.

I would hop on Reyna's odds now, and keep an eye out for Balogun closer to kickoff.