USA-Bosnia Betting Preview: The First Match of the Knockouts

After winning Group D, the US Men’s National Team now moves into the knockout stage with a Round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The group stage ended with a bit of a reality check. After rolling over Paraguay and Australia, a rotated squad lost 3-2 to Türkiye in the final match.

Now, there are no more second chances. The US is the better team on paper and has the home-field edge, but Bosnia is exactly the kind of opponent that can make a knockout game uncomfortable if the Americans do not start cleanly.

The US enters this match as a heavy favorite, which makes sense. They were the best team in Group D over the first two matchdays, they have more attacking options, and this matchup will be played in Santa Clara with a crowd that should heavily favor the Americans.

That said, I usually don't love laying -255 on the 90-minute moneyline in a knockout match, especially with a squad that's not so proven.

Bosnia isn't a team the US should be terrified of, but they're no slouches. They took a point from Canada, beat Qatar when they needed a result, and have enough attacking quality to punish a mistake. Edin Džeko is still the obvious name, but Bosnia also has enough talent to cause problems. Plus, they will almost certainly be playing for penalties if the game is tied late

I'll probably take the US to win in 90, but you may want to play it safer with the US to advance market if you need a Same Game Parlay anchor.

The US scored eight goals in the group stage, and even with the rotated loss to Türkiye, this attack has looked dangerous. Balogun, Pulisic, Pepi, and Reyna give Poch a lot of options up top.

Bosnia also feels capable of contributing to this total. They have scored in two of their three matches so far, and they should have chances to counter if the US pushes numbers forward early. The Americans have been good going forward, but they haven't looked impenetrable either.

The case for the under is pretty simple. Knockout games can get tight, and Bosnia may be happy to sit deep, defend in numbers, and try to drag this into the later stages, while the US may look to go up early and park the bus.

Still, I lean over 2.5 goals. The US has too much attacking quality to play this like a cagey 1-0 match, and Bosnia should have enough going forward to keep the back door open.

This market is a lot different than the Türkiye match because we are probably not guessing who will play what minutes anymore.

Balogun is the obvious top option if he starts, but -105 is a steep price for an anytime goalscorer in a knockout match. He has been a breakout star of this World Cup, and this is the kind of game where the US should spend long stretches in Bosnia’s half. Still, I do not love betting an odds-on scorer unless the lineup and matchup both look perfect.

Pulisic at +110 is probably the cleaner US pick. He does not need to play as a true striker to get chances and the US will likely run a lot of the attack through him. If you are looking for one US attacker who should get a full workload and be involved in the biggest moments, Pulisic is still the best blend of role, talent, and better odds.

Pepi and Wright are both interesting options, but I hate the +115 odds.

On the Bosnia side, Džeko at +280 is the most interesting long-shot. Bosnia may not create a ton of chances, but if they do score, he is the obvious player to look at. He remains their central target, and his price might make more sense than forcing a short US number.

Plus, he's the obvious choice to take any pens.

Pulisic and Balogun are priced at -130 and -120 to get 1+ goal or assist (in 90), respectively, and I will look to include at least one in any SGP I put together.