USA-Belgium Betting Preview: A Major Test in the Round of 16

The USMNT is one win away from its first World Cup quarterfinal since 2002, but standing in the way is a familiar knockout-stage problem: Belgium.

Twelve years after getting knocked out by Belgium in the same round, we get a chance to put a crown jewel in what will probably go down as the best World Cup in the history of the Men's program.

The US already survived one knockout test against a chippy Bosnian side, even adding a goal a man down after Folarin Balogun’s red card. Now, after FIFA suspended his one-match ban, Flo is available again, and the odds market has moved back toward the Americans, making this one a veritable toss-up.

Belgium isn't Bosnia, and frankly, I'm a bit surprised to see the US as the favorite in 90, even if it's by the slimmest of margins.

Sure, the US has home-field advantage, Balogun's availability is a shock, and the team should have enough attacking quality to cause an older Belgium squad problems. But this is a different level. There is too much experience and individual quality here to treat this like a match the US should simply control from start to finish.

The draw at +240 is probably the number that scares me most. Knockout matches often tighten up, and both teams have enough attacking talent to punish mistakes without necessarily dominating the game. A 1-1 or 2-2 after 90 minutes would not be surprising at all.

If you like the US, I would rather look at them to advance than force the 90-minute moneyline. At +155, the regulation win is tempting, but it leaves out extra time and penalties in a matchup that feels built to get uncomfortable.

As an American fan, I want to say the US comes out flying, feeds off the Seattle crowd, and wins this cleanly in 90 minutes. As someone trying to analyze the odds as objectively as possible, I’m not quite there. Belgium is dangerous enough that I’d rather give myself the extra time and penalty safety net.

I lean over, but 1-1 after 90 minutes is probably the result I’m most afraid of.

Belgium should be able to create chances, and the US attack looks much more dangerous with Balogun available. However, Thibaut Courtois is still world-class in goal.

That does not mean this has to become a shootout. It just means both teams feel likely enough to score that the over is one breakthrough, set piece, or late chase phase away from hitting.

The risk is that this becomes a classic knockout match: tense, cautious, and stuck at 1-1. Still, I’d rather be on the side of attacking talent here. Neither defense looks strong enough for me to confidently bet on control.

So I'm leaning towards the over if I had to pick, but I think 1-1 after 90 at +600 is the exact score that's most attractive.

This is the first time in these previews that a non-US player is the favorite here, and I think that makes sense, with Belgium's longtime striker Romelu Lukaku at +125. 

It is not exactly the patriotic pick, but Belgium’s clearest path to a goal is still Lukaku getting on the end of something in the box. The US has been strong, but they have also had moments where they can be pulled apart defensively, and their backline/goalkeeping is likely their weak spot.

Balogun at +140 is tempting, especially with the suspension lifted, but there is real uncertainty here. He hasn't been in the plans, so he likely missed training in the days leading up to the match. I’d be hesitant to bet him unless we know he is starting. The price is short enough that you need confidence in his minutes.

That also makes Ricardo Pepi interesting at +160. If Balogun is limited or does not start, Pepi is the obvious player to step into those striker minutes. I still prefer Lukaku as the cleaner anytime scorer bet, but Pepi becomes much more playable if the starting lineup breaks his way.

Pulisic at +170 is interesting, but I’d rather play him in a goal-or-assist market if available.

It may not be popular, but I'm banking on Lukaku at +125.