Predicting Spider-Man: Brand New Day's Rotten Tomatoes Score (Odds)
How Will Critics Rate Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
Marvel fans, or movie fans in general, can now predict how they think Spider-Man: Brand New Day will be received by critics. The markets currently show a projection for the Rotten Tomatoes score, hovering around 92%.
As one of the most anticipated films of the year, the excitement makes sense. It's been five years since the last Spider-Man movie in Tom Holland's saga, No Way Home, which remains one of the five highest-rated Marvel films on Rotten Tomatoes. The last movie left on an emotional cliffhanger, with the identity of Peter Parker being erased from everyone's memories.
Out of all the Marvel characters, Spider-Man has maintained one of the biggest fan bases. This is evidenced by the activity on Kalshi, with the market showing high expectations for the July 31st release.
| Above 75 | 98% |
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| Above 80 | 89% |
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| Above 85 | 86% |
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| Above 90 | 67% |
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| Above 95 | 23% |
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This market works a little differently than a typical sports prediction market because there isn't just one winning outcome. If Spider-Man: Brand New Day finishes with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score, every "Above" market from Above 30 through Above 85 would settle as YES, while Above 90 and Above 95 would settle as NO.
Kalshi uses the official Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score on the Monday after the movie's wide release, so it settles at 10:00 a.m. ET, August 3rd. One thing to remember is that the score must be above the listed number, so a score of exactly 75% would not cash an Above 75 contract.
The Kalshi forecast reflects where traders expect Brand New Day to land on Rotten Tomatoes. The current odds are based on the money backing each outcome, with the market showing strong confidence that the film will earn positive reviews from critics.
In comparison, the previous 3 Spider-Man movies (of the Tom Holland era) received the following Rotten Tomatoes scores:
- Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017): 92%
- Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019): 91%
- Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021): 93%
Spider-Man movies have been some of the most critically acclaimed of all Marvel movies, and the markets show that most people expect the upcoming movie to follow that trend. The Kalshi forecast currently lands right around the results of the previous movies in the series. Nearly all traders expect Brand New Day to score above 75 (98% of the market is on "Yes"), but not above 95 (only 23% are on "Yes").
Sports have always been a major part of Jake's life. His love for sports naturally led to a passion for sports betting, which he's been doing for 8 years. Jake holds a degree in writing from Oregon State and a journalism certificate from Palomar College. His goal has always been sports journalism, and writing in the sports betting industry allows me to combine my skills and interests.
