Who Will Win NFL Coach of the Year? Odds Point to Harbaugh

NFL Coach of the Year is rarely awarded to the coach of the league’s best team. The winner is usually the coach behind the biggest surprise.

A quick turnaround, overcoming major injuries, exceeding low preseason expectations, or finally pushing a contender over the hump can all build a winning case. For example, Mike Vrabel won the award last season after leading the unlikely Patriots to the #2 seed in the AFC. That helps explain why four of this year’s five favorites are entering their first seasons as head coaches, even though some have significantly more experience than others.

John Harbaugh is the clear favorite as he begins a new chapter with the New York Giants. Jesse Minter, Robert Saleh, and Joe Brady are also taking over new head-coaching jobs, while Kellen Moore is the only returning coach among the top five.

Let's look at the NFL Coach of the Year odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook (converted from American odds to implied probability), and evaluate the leading candidates and what it would take for each to win.

After 18 seasons with the Ravens, John Harbaugh is beginning a new chapter with the New York Giants. He is by far the most established coach taking over a new team, with 180 regular-season wins, 12 playoff appearances, and a Super Bowl title on his résumé.

The Giants have low expectations but enough young talent to make a quick turnaround possible. Second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart is surrounded by promising players such as Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo, while the defense has multiple elite pass rushers. If New York stays in the playoff race and Dart takes a step forward, Harbaugh will receive plenty of credit for changing the franchise's direction.

Jesse Minter is replacing Harbaugh in Baltimore after two successful seasons as the Chargers’ defensive coordinator. Los Angeles had one of the NFL’s best defenses during the second half of last season, strengthening Minter’s reputation as one of the league’s brightest young defensive coaches.

He now inherits Lamar Jackson and a Ravens roster built to compete immediately. That gives Minter a higher ceiling than most first-year coaches, but it also raises the standard he must meet. Baltimore likely needs to win the AFC North and finish near the top of the conference for Minter to emerge as a serious Coach of the Year candidate.

Robert Saleh is getting a second opportunity as a head coach after a disaster with the Jets (can you really blame him), and then rebuilding his reputation with the 49ers. San Francisco finished 12-5 last season despite major injuries to Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and other key players, showing Saleh can adapt when his defense is missing star talent.

The Titans offer him a young roster led by second-year quarterback Cam Ward and very low expectations. Tennessee only needs to remain competitive for Saleh to receive recognition, especially if the defense improves quickly. He has also assembled the NFL’s baldest coaching staff, which doesn't apply here but is still a fun thing to point out.

Kellen Moore is the only coach in the top five returning to the same position. His first season in New Orleans started with a 2-10 record, but the Saints won four of their final five games and went undefeated in December after rookie Tyler Shough took control of the offense.

That late run created genuine optimism heading into Moore’s second season. New Orleans also plays in an NFC South that does not have an overwhelming favorite, giving the Saints a realistic path to the playoffs. If Shough develops under Moore's offense and the Saints turn last year’s strong finish into a division title, there is plenty of reason for Moore to get the recognition. He has won a Super Bowl as a coordinator, but now has a chance to prove himself as an elite head coach.

It's hard to see why the oddsmakers have Brady in the top 5 here. Since this is a regular-season award, it seems hard to justify why Brady would win it when simply winning the AFC East is the standard for the Bills, rather than a surprise. 

Even if he helps them get over the hump in the playoffs, that shouldn't be considered in the voting. Still, he already knows the roster after spending two years as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator, and his offense finished near the top of the league in scoring in both seasons.

That familiarity should make the transition easier, especially with the best quarterback in the NFL leading the offense. Buffalo may need to completely dominate the AFC or overcome significant adversity for Brady to receive enough credit to win.