Giannis Trade Odds Update: Market Say it's Down to Boston and Miami

After a disappointing 32-50 season that saw the Bucks miss the playoffs for the first time in a decade, franchise cornerstone Giannis Antetokounmpo appears to be on the move.

Antetokounmpo famously requested a trade before this year's deadline in February, but Milwaukee couldn't get a deal done. However, it now seems inevitable that the Greek Freak will find a new home for the first time in his NBA career, with Mark Stein reporting that the Celtics and the Heat were in the mix. The odds make this look like a two-horse race for the time being, but lets dig a little deeper.

This market has been an interesting one to track, as it's shifted a ton in the past several months.

Boston has seen its chances rise from 13% a few weeks ago to now being the front-runner, after reporting from Stein and Bill Simmons. The Celtics are the only team listed that would be able to part with a superstar of its own. With Jaylen Brown's recent comments alluding to the fact that he may want to be the face of his own franchise, it may be time to break him and Jayson Tatum up. It would likely require sending Brown to a third team, but much of Giannis' value would already be matched by including Brown in the trade.

Miami was the favorite to open up the market, and its odds have also gone up despite losing its top-dog status. They may be a tougher fit on. Some interesting young talent like Pelle Larson, Kel'el Ware, and draft picks may be enough to start a conversation, but may not match some other packages, including those that include Jaylen Brown. 

Pairing Giannis with Bam Adebayo certainly makes the team an interesting contender in a relatively weak East, but the trade would certainly deprive the team of most of its depth. Pat Riley is always making calls on superstars, so it makes sense they would still be listed among the favorites.

The odds of Giannis staying in Milwaukee continue to dwindle. At the original publish date of this article, they were holding strong at 17%, and those odds have nearly halved in the weeks since. A divorce seems more and more likely.

Minnesota and Brooklyn have risen to become the only other teams above 1%, according to Kalshi, while other possible suitors like Oklahoma City, Portland, and Washington have fallen off the radar. Whether either team has a package that would make sense for Giannis is very much still up for debate.

A lot can change, but it appears the Greek Freak is Boston or Miami-bound.