NBA Finals Betting Preview: Odds for Series Winner, MVP, and More
Spurs vs. Knicks Preview
It’s Finals time, and we’ve got our best matchup in years: Wemby and the Spurs against Jalen Brunson’s Knicks, with the potential new face of the league taking on a big-market giant desperate to reclaim its prestige. A rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals, for those of you who can remember them!
We've dug into the markets to preview who will win the series, MVP, and more.
NBA Finals Champion Odds
| San Antonio Spurs | -185 (65%) |
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| New York Knicks | +155 (39%) |
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The Spurs are running hot right now, fresh off of a 3-2 comeback against the heavily favored Thunder in the Western Conference Finals to win game 7 in OKC. Victor Wembanyama looks to have gone up a level, leading the historic comeback against the defending champions.
On the other hand, the Knicks have looked outright dominant in their own right. After stumbling out of the gates, they've ripped off 11 straight wins, tied for the second-longest winning streak for a team entering the NBA Finals ever.
However, many have doubted they can keep up with the Spurs or Thunder coming out of the West, factoring in the comparatively weak Eastern Conference field this year. I tend to agree with that assessment and think San Antonio has looked like the best team in the Playoffs this year.
NBA Finals MVP Odds
| Victor Wembanyama | -180 (64%) |
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| Jalen Brunson | +185 (35%) |
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| Karl-Anthony Towns | +1200 (8%) |
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| Stephon Castle | +3000 (3%) |
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| OG Anunoby | +3000 (3%) |
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This is a real two-man race, which makes for quite the narrative as well.
On one side, you have Victor Wembanyama. The European giant has been seen as the next big thing since YouTube clips first starting coming out when he was 15. He was the #1 overall pick, the prospect everyone expected to become a franchise-changing superstar. He's somehow exceeded them and announced himself as the future of the sport, a worthy successor to LeBron.
On the other hand, you have Jalen Brunson. An undersized point guard who played four years in college, only to be a second-round pick whose first team let him walk. If he had become a left-handed Lou Williams, that alone would have been considered a massive steal. Instead, he has blown past every projection and carried the Knicks to the NBA Finals for the first time in decades.
The David vs. Goliath story between these two competitors writes itself.
On the Spurs side, there's no real competition - it's Wemby or nothing. There are some Knicks who are worth taking a look at. KAT could be an interesting look if his inside-out game is able to pull Wembanyama out of the paint, but even then, Brunson is the biggest beneficiary of the open lanes.
In a year like this, if you want to bet on a series-winner, you may be better off just betting on your team's best player (in this case, Wemby or Brunson)to win the series MVP.
You usually will get better odds while taking virtually the same risk.
Total Games Odds
| 4 Games | +575 (15%) |
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| 5 Games | +290 (26%) |
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| 6 Games | +190 (34%) |
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| 7 Games | +190 (34%) |
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On paper, I think it's safe to say these teams are fairly evenly matched. There's virtually no chance in my head of a 4 or 5-game series, unless an injury changes things drastically.
The oddsmakers agree, and 6 or 7 games are tied for lowest odds on the board at Caesars Sportsbook.
In the regular season, the Spurs had a slightly higher point differential per game (+8.3 to +6.3), and have home court advantage in the series. Those factors probably lead to them being in favored to win the series in 6 games, but just slightly over 7.
What Celebrities Will be Courtside for Game 1?
| Spike Lee | 91% |
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| Tracy Morgan | 90% |
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| Adam Sandler | 87% |
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| Timothée Chalamet | 87% |
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| Ben Stiller | 71% |
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| Chris Rock | 66% |
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| Pete Davidson | 66% |
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| Kylie Jenner | 25% |
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And now, a bit of a sillier one, courtesy of the markets at Kalshi.
We don't have too much analysis, besides the fact that Spike Lee is a virtual guarantee to be at every single game, while most of the 90's Saturday Night Live cast will be in attendance for games at the Garden.
If I had to place a bet on this one, I'd probably look at the long odds for Kylie Jenner. If there's an 87% chance her partner is there, the high-risk plus-one at +300 odds may be worth it?
Personally, I’ll probably stick to betting on the actual games, but if you're interested in the novelty markets, this one is pretty fun.
Patrick is a lifelong sports fan born and raised in the Philadelphia area, where he grew up attending Phillies, Sixers, and Eagles games. He earned a degree in Sports Management from Temple University and went on to work for multiple professional sports teams. He has over eight years of sports betting experience and five years professionally reviewing online sportsbooks across several legal states.
Patrick has also written for our sister site BettingApps.com.
