The Race to the Bottom: Odds for the NFL’s Worst Record

As we approach the 2026-27 NFL season, fans of most teams are hoping to compete for a spot in the playoffs, or even considering their Super Bowl chances. However, fans of a handful of teams have a different question in mind: will they finish with the worst record in the league?

Of course, having the worst record in the NFL doesn't come without reward. Whichever team accomplishes this pathetic feat is compensated with the #1 pick in next year's NFL Draft. Whether or not that is enough to cope with the feeling of being awful all season is up to the fans to decide.

Sometimes, snagging the coveted #1 pick is enough to turn a franchise around by drafting the team's new savior. Or, it results in a bust. You could get the next Joe Burrow, or have Cam Ward still struggling in preseason games.

No team enters the year trying to lose every game, but usually by midseason the race to the bottom begins. Throughout the season, we can track which team has the best odds to be the worst, using the markets on Kalshi. Let's look at the teams most likely to finish with the worst record in the 2026-27 season.

The Cardinals finished 3-14 last season, then used the #3 overall pick on running back Jeremiyah Love. Love may be the best running back prospect in years, but using a top-three pick on the position is an interesting choice for a team with glaring holes just about everywhere else.

Love is probably the only reason to be excited about watching this offense. Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a major disappointment through two seasons, and neither Jacoby Brissett nor Carson Beck is going to fix him. The Cardinals reworked Brissett's contract to bring him back, but if the season is going nowhere, they will probably want to see what they have in Beck.

Arizona will also be playing its first season under Mike LaFleur, who gets to begin his head coaching career in the toughest division in football. The Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers all made the playoffs last season, with one being last year's champ, and another being this year's favorite.

I don't see many paths to Arizona being competitive this season. Love could be a great player eventually, but it's hard for any running back to produce with a bad team around them. The Cardinals have more than enough weaknesses to finish last this season.

Remember when the Dolphins had the fastest offense in the NFL with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane, and Mike McDaniel? Well, now they have Achane.

Miami will start Malik Willis at quarterback after he spent the last few seasons as a backup in Green Bay. Willis looked decent when asked to fill in for Jordan Love, but playing a few games in a well-run offense is much different than being asked to save this roster. Outside of Achane, there isn't a proven weapon who should scare opposing defenses.

The Dolphins also hired first-time NFL head coach Jeff Hafley to oversee what looks like a complete rebuild. An unproven coach, a career backup quarterback, and an overall bad roster is a pretty convincing formula for finishing last.

If Miami starts the season poorly, the tank could be in full effect before Halloween. I would be surprised if the Dolphins eclipse 4 wins, and they may be the team I trust most to fully embrace the race for the #1 pick.

The Browns traded Myles Garrett, which signaled that they are more focused on building for the future than trying to compete now. Cleveland did receive Jared Verse and several draft picks in return, which could help in the long run.

Somehow, Deshaun Watson won the starting quarterback job after missing all of last season and being terrible whenever he has played for Cleveland. The Browns insist it was an open competition, but the $230 million guaranteed contract sitting in the corner probably had a vote. Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel are the other options, giving Cleveland a crowded quarterback room without one quarterback it should feel good about.

The best argument against the Browns finishing last is their young talent. Mason Graham, Carson Schwesinger, Quinshon Judkins, and Harold Fannin Jr. gave fans something to feel good about last season. Still, the receiving corps is built on rookies & Jerry Jeudy; the defense just lost its best player, and first-year head coach Todd Monken has been handed one of the least appealing jobs in football.

Cleveland plays in a tough AFC North and may spend the year deciding which young players belong in its rebuild. I don't know if the Browns will be bad enough to finish last, but they certainly look capable of making it interesting.

Last year, Geno Smith accomplished one of the most impressive things in sports. The team he left (Seattle Seahawks), won the Super Bowl the first year in his absence, while the team he went to (Las Vegas Raiders) finished dead last in the NFL.

The Jets saw this and said, "That's our guy."

While Geno isn't the best option to lead a football team, the Jets probably have the most talented skill players on this list. Breece Hall is an above-average running back, Garrett Wilson is a star-level wideout, and they took two more talented pass-catchers in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.

Since their offense is only lacking a quarterback, it wouldn't be surprising for the Jets to start tanking early in hopes of getting the #1 pick. This is also a team that didn't record a single interception on defense last year. The Jets know how to lose, and may be inclined to do a lot of it this season.

The Raiders finished last in the NFL last season, landing Fernando Mendoza as the #1 overall pick. It's uncommon for the same team to secure the #1 pick in back-to-back seasons; the Jacksonville Jaguars were the last to do so in 2020 & 2021. Before that, it hadn't happened since the Browns in 1999-2000.

I wouldn't expect the Raiders to finish last, after they spent a ton of money in the offseason to bulk up their roster. They went and got a decent bridge QB in Kirk Cousins to hopefully keep them competitive until Mendoza is ready to take the reins. Running back Ashton Jeanty is looking to break out as the star he is supposed to be, and they ended up keeping Maxx Crosby.

However, the Raiders play in the AFC West, which could easily result in 6 losses to the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos.

This is another franchise that knows what it's like to finish last (a common theme on this list), but the current Raiders team has much more talent than the rest of the teams here.