Who Will Land the #1 Pick in the 2027 NFL Draft? Dolphins Still Most Likely

Six weeks into the NFL season, most fans are still thinking about playoff spots, division titles, or whether their team can get its act together. For a few fanbases, though, draft season is arriving embarrassingly early.

Miami remains winless at 0-5, while the Chargers have gone one better (or worse) at 0-6. Tennessee finally won to reach 1-5, and Arizona joined the Jets at 2-4 after upsetting the Rams. Winning games is apparently still the priority, even if it complicates the race for the No. 1 pick.

Of course, being awful comes with a consolation prize. The team with the worst record gets the first selection in the 2027 NFL Draft, unless it has already traded the pick away. Tied records bring tiebreakers into play, so this miserable little competition could stay interesting.

Sometimes that pick delivers a franchise savior. Other times, you spend the next few years arguing about whether the quarterback is bad or everyone around him is ruining his life. Tennessee fans are becoming familiar with that conversation.

Using the markets on Kalshi, we broke down the teams most likely to end up picking first in 2027.

The Dolphins are now 1-5 after beating the Jets 28-25, giving Jeff Hafley his first NFL head coaching win. More importantly for their outlook, Miami is developing something it can rely on. The Dolphins rank seventh in rushing yards per game and second since Achane’s Week 3 injury. Apparently, losing their best running back didn’t mean abandoning the run.

Malik Willis also showed what a cleaner performance can do, accounting for three touchdowns against New York while Miami avoided turnovers. That doesn’t establish him as a long-term answer, but it gives the Dolphins a way to compete without asking him to carry everything.

Miami remains the favorite to pick first. The roster still has obvious limitations, but a dependable rushing attack could produce enough wins to complicate that prediction. This team looks less helpless than it did in September.

Tennessee is 1-6 and showed that last week's win wasn't a total fluke. The Titans followed their first win with a 27-24 loss to Cleveland, letting a 14-0 lead disappear before losing on the final play.

Cam Ward has 1,179 passing yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions through seven games, averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt. Those aren’t the numbers Tennessee wanted from its former No. 1 pick in Year 2. Sustaining drives and creating downfield opportunities remain weekly projects.

Tony Pollard gives the offense a productive alternative, while rookie receiver Carnell Tate offers Ward someone to grow with. Tennessee has enough individual talent to make games uncomfortable. Turning those stretches into complete performances is where things keep falling apart.

The Titans remain Miami’s strongest challenger. A win and a narrow loss over the last two weeks suggest they aren’t hopeless, but the passing game still limits how often they can capitalize. Tennessee already used the first pick on Ward in 2025. Landing there again would raise uncomfortable questions about what the rebuild has accomplished around him.

The Chargers being 0-6 remains one of the season’s biggest surprises. A team with Herbert and Harbaugh wasn’t supposed to be sharing the basement with complete rebuilds. Their bye provided a chance to regroup, but it didn’t erase the problems.

Herbert has thrown eight interceptions against five touchdowns and taken 21 sacks. Los Angeles ranks 30th in scoring at 15 points per game, making even a respectable defensive performance difficult to turn into a win.

Offensive line injuries are a major factor. Rashawn Slater is on injured reserve, Joe Alt has missed time, and the replacements have struggled to keep Herbert comfortable. Ladd McConkey’s injury issues have further limited an offense that was supposed to improve under McDaniel.

The Chargers’ chances reflect the belief that this roster can still outperform the other teams here. That is reasonable, but increasingly theoretical. The plan to simplify the offense after the bye could help Herbert play cleaner football. If the protection and turnovers don’t improve, having the most recognizable quarterback in this group won’t keep Los Angeles away from the first pick.