Brock Purdy MVP Odds: More QBs Are Catching Up

Brock Purdy is making it harder to dismiss him as a game manager or a product of Kyle Shanahan’s system. He’s kept San Francisco at the top despite injuries around him, and his MVP case now rests on more than simply benefiting from a good offense.

The challenge is sustaining it. Purdy needs to keep the 49ers near the top of the NFC while doing enough individually to separate himself from the league’s other superstar quarterbacks. Early success gets him into the conversation, but consistency through the tougher stretches will decide whether he stays there.

Purdy’s MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook reflect that opportunity. He has established himself among the leading contenders, with a realistic path to the award. We examine what supports his case, what could derail it, and the competition standing in his way.

Through seven games, Purdy has 1,748 passing yards, 15 touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a 110.1 passer rating. San Francisco is 6-1, and he is completing 69.2% of his throws. Those remain strong numbers, but Atlanta provided the first significant setback to his MVP campaign.

Purdy threw for 288 yards and a touchdown in the 29-20 loss, but his two interceptions matched his total from the first six games combined. After several weeks of finding ways to win imperfect games, the 49ers couldn’t overcome their mistakes this time.

There was still a late response. Purdy helped lead an 82-yard touchdown drive that brought San Francisco within six with five minutes remaining. But unlike the wins over Arizona and Seattle, the comeback wasn’t enough. His 75.8 passer rating was his lowest of the season, and an MVP case built partly on protecting the ball took a hit.

Receiver availability remains a major factor. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel both missed the game, adding to the absences of Ricky Pearsall, De’Zhaun Stribling and Demarcus Robinson. Christian Kirk returned but didn't record a single target. The passing game is still operating with a very different group than San Francisco intended.

Atlanta showed how difficult that becomes when the available receivers and quarterback aren’t consistently connecting. George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey remain dependable, but they cannot account for every answer.

The Week 8 bye arrives at a useful time. One loss hasn’t undone his candidacy, and 6-1 still gives him an excellent platform. His challenge is to return with fewer mistakes and keep the offense productive while San Francisco works toward getting its receivers back.

Josh Allen is the biggest obstacle between Purdy and his first MVP. His rushing ability gives Buffalo another way to score when the passing game isn’t clicking, and those touchdowns count just as much when voters look at his season. Purdy needs to keep winning and playing efficiently because Allen won’t be easy to catch.

Joe Burrow is another serious threat. He leads the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards per game, giving him the kind of production that’s hard to argue with. His defense may keep him from winning the award, though, as shown by allowing 36 points to the Titans. If Cincinnati stays in the division-title hunt, Burrow should remain near the front of this race.

Caleb Williams has entered the top five for the first time this season despite missing three games with a hamstring injury. He has played well since returning, and beating Seattle on Monday night gave his case a significant boost. Missing that much time puts him at a disadvantage, though. He’ll need an outstanding finish to convince voters to overlook the games he wasn’t available.

Trevor Lawrence probably still isn’t getting enough attention. He leads the NFL in passer rating and sits near the top in touchdown passes, so there’s more behind his case than Jacksonville simply being competitive. If the Jaguars keep winning, it’ll become harder to leave him out of the main discussion. He doesn’t have the same MVP history as Allen or Mahomes, but his play deserves to be taken seriously.

Patrick Mahomes has slipped outside the top five for now. There’s plenty of season left for him to return, but his name alone won’t keep him ahead of quarterbacks playing better football. 

Purdy remains among the leading candidates, although the growing list of challengers should make it clear how quickly that can change.