Brock Purdy's MVP Odds Soar After Near-Perfect Performance

Brock Purdy came about as close to perfect as a quarterback can in Week 2.

The 49ers quarterback completed 20 of 22 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday’s 35-13 win over Miami. He added 30 rushing yards and another score, helping San Francisco improve to 2-0.

The first win deserves attention, too. San Francisco opened the season by beating the Super Bowl favorite Rams 27-7 in Melbourne, with Purdy throwing three touchdown passes. Miami is a lesser team, but Purdy looked like the best player on the field against the Dolphins. Those are two different kinds of performances, and both have helped move his odds.

Purdy’s MVP odds now sit at +800 at DraftKings Sportsbook, tied with Patrick Mahomes for second behind Josh Allen (+290).

He’s gone from an outside possibility to one of the leading contenders in two games. Is this the start of a real MVP campaign, or have a few impressive performances moved the odds a little too far?

Purdy’s 149.1 passer rating against Miami tells you how efficient he was, but a couple of plays show how much he controlled the game. He scrambled for gains of 10 and 18 yards on a second-quarter touchdown drive, then finished it himself with a two-yard run. 

He went right back to work after halftime. Purdy found George Kittle for 40 yards on the first play of the third quarter, then hit him again for a touchdown three plays later. When the Dolphins gave him an opening, he took it. When a play broke down, he could make something happen on his own. 

For years, the knock on Purdy was that the 49ers’ roster and system made his job easy. That argument gets harder to make when he keeps playing well as his receivers get hurt. With several more injuries to navigate this season, maintaining that level of play would do plenty for his MVP case.

Purdy knows how quickly an MVP case can turn. He was firmly in the conversation in 2023 before throwing four interceptions against Baltimore on Christmas night. He still finished fourth in the voting, but that one game did serious damage. A strong season can get a quarterback into the race; a rough performance against another contender can change how everyone sees it.

The more immediate concern this year is his receiving group. Ricky Pearsall is out for the season, while rookie De’Zhaun Stribling is expected to miss around 10 weeks after ankle surgery. Demarcus Robinson suffered a high ankle sprain against Miami and could land on injured reserve. Mike Evans is dealing with a hip injury, and Christian Kirk isn’t ready to return yet. Purdy still has George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey, but that is a lot of uncertainty at receiver.

There is an opportunity in that challenge. If Purdy keeps the 49ers among the NFC’s best teams while those players are sidelined, it becomes harder to dismiss his production as a product of his supporting cast. Purdy used to be discredited for having too much talent around him, but that argument has taken a turn in recent years as Purdy keeps producing despite injuries around him.

The 49ers’ balanced offense cuts both ways, too. It can keep them winning when Purdy doesn’t need to throw much, but he’ll need games where he is clearly the reason they won. Beating the Super Bowl favorite Rams was a strong start. He’ll need more performances against contenders, particularly when San Francisco can’t build an early lead and control the game on the ground.

At +800, Purdy has a real path. His case will depend less on repeating a 20-for-22 afternoon and more on whether he can guide this offense through injuries, tougher opponents, and the games where everything isn’t working quite so easily.

Josh Allen remains the clear favorite at +290, and it is easy to see why he could stay there. Buffalo’s offense runs through him in just about every situation. He can lead a comeback with his arm, extend drives with his legs, and finish them himself near the goal line. If the Bills remain one of the AFC’s best teams, Allen will likely stay atop the rankings.

Patrick Mahomes has a strong case at +800. Kansas City looks better equipped to score in different ways with Kenneth Walker III in the backfield, which should help the Chiefs keep winning. It also means Mahomes may not need to carry the offense every week. Whether that helps or hurts his MVP chances depends on what he does when a game does fall on his shoulders.

Lamar Jackson is close behind at +850. He already has two MVP awards and remains one of the few quarterbacks who can take over a game without putting up huge passing numbers. Joe Burrow is also +850, though his path depends more heavily on Cincinnati winning enough games to keep him in the conversation. Both have plenty of time to move up the board.

Purdy has earned his place alongside them, but Allen, Mahomes, and Jackson have all sustained MVP-level play across full seasons. For Purdy, the next test is doing the same while the 49ers work through injuries at receiver and face tough opponents. If he keeps San Francisco near the top of the NFC and remains the reason its offense works, his candidacy should last well beyond this fast start.