Kenneth Walker's Offensive Player of the Year Odds Jump After KC Debut

Kenneth Walker apparently didn’t need much time to get comfortable in Andy Reid's Kansas City offense.

The new Chiefs running back piled up 191 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns in Monday night’s 31-10 win over Denver, giving Patrick Mahomes some fairly substantial help in the season opener. Walker’s Offensive Player of the Year odds now sit at +1300 at DraftKings Sportsbook, tied with Derrick Henry for third place, trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs (+500) and Bijan Robinson (+1000).

That is a huge swing from DraftKings’ opening market in preseason, when Walker was listed at +4000. He’s gone from an outside possibility to one of the leading contenders overnight, and his first game in a Chiefs uniform offered a pretty convincing explanation for the enthusiasm.

Is it justified or a classic Week 1 overreaction?

Walker finished with 173 rushing yards on 23 carries, averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. He added three receptions for 18 yards and scored both on the ground and through the air against a stout Denver D. K9's signature play came on a 4th-and-1 in the third quarter where, instead of just moving the chains, he housed a 60-yard TD run.

For some perspective on how thoroughly he took over, Denver finished with 176 yards of total offense. Walker outgained the Broncos by himself.

The workload was almost as encouraging as the production. Walker handled 26 touches, compared with 10 for fellow running back Emmett Johnson. His six targets were also tied for the team lead, suggesting that his involvement won’t necessarily disappear when Kansas City needs to throw.

That is the part that matters most for his chances at realistically taking home the award. The long touchdown grabs the attention, but dependable volume would give Walker a much stronger foundation for an award-winning season than relying on the occasional highlight.

It was an impressive start, but every season has a Week 1 wonder that doesn't hold up over the course of the season.

Walker arrived in Kansas City as the reigning Super Bowl MVP after rushing for 135 yards in Seattle’s win over New England. His ability to take over a big game was hardly a secret before Monday night.

But his best regular season to date produced 1,309 scrimmage yards, which he reached last year. His career-high rushing total remains the 1,050 yards he recorded as a rookie. 

Those are productive numbers, but an OPOY campaign would require another level of sustained production.

The optimistic argument is that his new role could provide exactly that without Zach Charbonnet vulturing touches.

Walker won't average 7.5 yards per carry all season, but he doesn't necessarily need to. He does need enough work to remain productive when the explosive runs aren’t there, and enough involvement near the end zone to keep the touchdowns coming.

With the threat of Patrick Mahomes' arm, fronts will be soft most of the time, allowing Walker more breathing room at the line of scrimmage than he ever consistently saw in Seattle.

At +1300, the question is whether Monday offered a glimpse of his new normal or merely a spectacular introduction.

Walker wasn’t the only playmaker to make a strong opening statement. Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Derrick Henry all had big Week 1 performances, so there’s no shortage of competition even within his own position. Gibbs remains the favorite at +500, followed by Robinson at +1000, with Henry alongside Walker at +1300.

Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua are both +1400, while Ja’Marr Chase sits at +1500, leaving all three barely behind Walker on the board. This is to say nothing of Walker's former teammate and defending Offensive Player of the Year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who picked up where he left off with 122 yards and a touchdown. At +1700, a JSN repeat may look just as attractive as a Walker win.

Walker’s playoff campaign last season and Kansas City debut give us pretty convincing reasons to take his candidacy seriously. It didn’t give us much reason to dismiss everyone else. He’s earned his place among the leading contenders, but staying there will take considerably more than one great Monday night.