NFL First Coach Fired Odds - Glenn Opens as Frontrunner

The first NFL coach-fired market is already open ahead of the 2026 season, with Aaron Glenn and Dan Quinn sitting atop the early board on Kalshi, with Dan Campbell (surprisingly) and Todd Bowles also receiving some support.

There is one major catch: less than $1,000 has been traded on the market so far, meaning right now the odds look way off. Sure, Glenn, Quinn, and Bowles are high up there, but Dan Campbell? It would have to be a disastrous start for Detroit to show him the door early in the season.

We’ll track the market throughout the season as trading volume increases, but in the meantime, we've broken down the candidates that we feel are actually the most likely to be the first coach fired wheading into Week 1.

Source: Kalshi, September 8, 2026 | Volume: $858 | Settles By: Feb. 15, 2027

Aaron Glenn enters the season as the clear frontrunner to be shown the door first, and it's not really a mystery why that's the case.

Last season, he was a first-year head coach who fired 8 assistant coaches, including the offensive and defensive coordinators. He came in with a resume as a defensive-minded coach who had 41 interceptions in his playing days, yet his team couldn't manage to pick off the opponent a single time.

The phrase "Dead Man Walking" has seemingly never been so aptly applied to an NFL head coach as it has to Aaron Glenn.

Still, Glenn has a chance to show improvement. New York opens up against Tennessee, and a win or two in the early weeks should buy him some time at least.

Glenn is still very well-liked around the league, and his time as a player in New York should also afford the former Pro Bowler some added goodwill. Just don't expect that goodwill to survive an 0-6 start.

Dan Quinn is probably the most surprising name we've chosen to highlight. Washington was playing in the NFC Championship Game less than two years ago, and Quinn deserves plenty of credit for getting them there in his first season.

Of course, going from 12-5 in 2024 to 5-12 last season is a quick way to burn that. Washington also went from 8-4 to 2-6 in one-score games, with injuries added in to make the regression easy to see in hindsight.

Still, we have a hard time seeing Quinn as the NFL's most likely first coach fired. One great year followed by one bad year generally buys you more patience than someone like Glenn or Bowles has right now. I would personally be surprised if he's fired midseason as opposed to holding off until the offseason.

This could change quickly, though. Washington opens with road games against Philadelphia and Dallas before hosting Seattle. An 0-3 start against three NFC contenders would make last season feel a whole lot less like an outlier, and more like a sign of this team's reality, putting a ton of pressure on Quinn early.

Todd Bowles feels much more like a traditional hot-seat candidate, in the sense that, like Glenn, it's surprising he survived the offseason.

Tampa Bay started 6-2 last season and looked headed for another NFC South title before completely falling apart down the stretch. The Bucs finished 8-9, missed the playoffs and ended a run of four straight division titles.

The response was pretty telling. Tampa Bay brought Bowles back but fired five assistant coaches, including offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. When that many people around the head coach get shown the door while he survives, there aren't many more places to point the finger if things go wrong again.

Bowles does have three straight division titles as head coach in his back pocket, so we don't think one bad Sunday gets him fired. But another collapse would be much harder to survive.

The good news is that Tampa Bay has a decent opportunity to avoid one. After opening at Cincinnati, the Bucs get Cleveland and Minnesota at home. Bowles probably doesn't need to dominate that stretch. A 2-1, or even 1-2, start gives the Bucs some life in the lowly NFC South.

Shane Steichen isn't getting much love from the early market, but his seat might be hotter than what the early market is suggesting.

The Colts were 8-2 last season, had the NFL's top-scoring offense and looked like a legitimate contender. Then the wheels didn't just come off. Indianapolis lost seven straight games to finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs entirely. Injuries were brutal, particularly Daniel Jones' torn Achilles and Alec Pierce's ankle surgery, but ownership wasn't interested in using them as a complete excuse.

Steichen and GM Chris Ballard were brought back despite the collapse, but the pressure is on.

Unfortunately, the schedule isn't offering much of a warm-up. Indianapolis opens against Baltimore, travels to Kansas City and then gets Houston at home.

If the Colts steal a game or two in that stretch, this conversation could disappear pretty quickly. If they're 0-3 and last season's seven-game skid suddenly looks like a bigger issue, Steichen could shoot up this board in a hurry.

With Steichen's offense likely starting slowly due to Jones and Pierce's recovery timelines, Steichen is a dark-horse candidate at this stage.