NFL First Coach Fired Odds: Glenn Pulls Ahead as Race Heats Up

The race to be the first NFL coach fired is tighter than it has been since the start of the regular season.

For most of the year, one coach has separated from the pack. Todd Bowles briefly became the runaway favorite before Dan Quinn took over and climbed as high as 60%. Now, just 19 percentage points separate the top four.

Aaron Glenn has jumped from 14% to 36% after the Jets gifted the Dolphins their first win of the season. Quinn has dropped to 30% after surviving Washington's bye week, while Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen continue to climb following more losses.

Bowles, meanwhile, has nearly played himself off the board after Tampa Bay finally put together the commanding performance we had been waiting for.

Let's dig into the first coach fired odds for Week 8.

Source: Kalshi, October 28, 2026 | Volume: $126,080 | Settles By: Feb. 15, 2027

We warned last week that losing to the 0-5 Dolphins at home would put Aaron Glenn right at the top of this market. The Jets went ahead and did exactly that.

New York fell behind 21-7 in the first half, mounted another late comeback and ultimately lost 28-25 without leading at any point. Miami left MetLife Stadium with its first victory of the season, while the Jets dropped to 2-5.

It was basically a repeat of the loss to New England, except against a much lesser opponent. The Jets started slowly, showed just enough fight to make things interesting, and then failed to finish the job. No one expects the Jets to be a playoff contender, but repeated patterns of incompetence are hard to pin down on anyone except the guy calling the shots.

The Jets now host a Raiders team that has lost four straight games. It is another winnable matchup and another opportunity for Glenn to buy himself some time. 

But another loss could mark the end of Glenn's time in New York.

Dan Quinn may have been saved by the bell.

The bye always looked like the most logical time for the Commanders to make a change. Instead, Washington used the break to self-scout, reset, and bring Steve Wilks into the defensive game-planning process. This suggests the organization is still trying to help Quinn fix this, rather than preparing to show him the door.

That explains why his odds have been cut in half from 60% to 30%.

Still, surviving the bye doesn't mean Quinn is suddenly safe. Washington remains 1-4-1 after winning just five games last season, and another poor performance could quickly erase whatever goodwill the break created.

The Commanders now host Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football in what is essentially a hot-seat elimination game.

This has all the makings of a loser-leaves-town match, which leads us to...

The Eagles have now lost five straight games.

Philadelphia fell 38-21 to Dallas on Monday night, dropping to 2-5 and below the Cowboys in the NFC East. The Eagles briefly took a lead in the third quarter before allowing 18 unanswered points to close the game. Uncharacteristic of Sirianni's squads, the offense showed some fight, but the defense rolled over.

Of course, the Jalen Hurts situation still hangs over everything.

With Hurts expected to miss the remainder of the season, this probably isn't a team capable of making a serious run anyway. That gives Sirianni a pretty obvious excuse and may make ownership more willing to write off the season before reassessing everything in January.

But getting blown out at home by Dallas is never harmless in Philadelphia.

A sixth straight loss against Washington would make it increasingly difficult to argue that Sirianni should be trusted to manage this lost season.

Shane Steichen's odds have continued to creep upward, even after a performance that wasn't necessarily embarrassing.

Indianapolis lost 16-10 to the undefeated Vikings, dropping to 2-5 and extending its losing streak to three games. The Colts' defense did more than enough to give them a chance, but two missed field goals and a passing attack that averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt ultimately sank them.

Daniel Jones finished with only 108 passing yards before throwing an interception on Indianapolis' final possession. Steichen insisted afterward that he wasn't considering a quarterback change, but the organization's decision to pay Jones has already doomed GM Chris Ballard, and may do the same for Steichen. 

With Ballard gone and DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson traded, the fate of the season is already written. Steichen has the chance to prove something in a lost season, or be the next person shipped out as the franchise resets.

Indianapolis now visits Jacksonville, with a fourth straight loss potentially dropping the Colts to 2-6.

Todd Bowles may have just bought himself the rest of the season.

Tampa Bay demolished Carolina 43-13, dominating in all three phases. The Bucs rushed for 258 yards, recorded five sacks and generated four takeaways while scoring 20 points off turnovers.

It was a true blowout performance against the division leaders, just what the doctor ordered for a coach on the hot seat. 

One victory doesn't completely erase a 2-5 record, but the miserable NFC South has already allowed Tampa Bay to creep back into the division race. The Bucs now host Atlanta with a chance to build some actual momentum.

Bowles' odds have fallen from 20% to just 3%, and that feels justified. Unless Tampa Bay immediately returns to its old habits, this may be his final appearance on the list for a while.