The Invite Oscar Odds: Best Picture, Best Actress & More

Academy Awards season is fast approaching, and Olivia Wilde's movie The Invite is getting plenty of consideration for multiple Oscar nominations. Not only does The Invite have a chance to score a Best Picture nomination; Olivia Wilde's odds to get a nom for Best Director and Best Actress are both high, as are the odds for Penélope Cruz and Edward Norton to get a nod.

Wilde's film about a dinner party gone wrong was released by A24 this summer, earning $62 million on a $15 million budget. The Invite score a 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and a solid 82/100 on Metacritic, so the critical reception is in line with other movies projected to get attention this Oscar season. 

On this page, we'll break down the odds for The Invite to earn an Oscar nomination, beginning with the film's odds to get a Best Picture nod.

The Invite may not be a favorite to win the Oscar for Best Picture this year, but with up to 10 films getting a nomination in the category, the odds of the movie being on the list are greater than 50%. One of the biggest questions as to whether or not The Invite will get a Best Picture nom is how voters and the public respond to movies that haven't yet been released. 

But for now, here are the odds for The Invite to score a Best Picture nomination:

As of the time this was written, there are dozens of potential nominees listed in Kalshi's odds, but The Invite does sit comfortably within the top 10 films on the list. It won't catch The Odyssey's category-leading 99% odds to get a Best Picture nomination, but compared to other films on the oddsboard, The Invite stands a solid chance of securing a nomination.

Arguably the most impressive thing Olivia Wilde was able to accomplish with The Invite was giving an Oscar-worthy performance while also directing the film. Among a star-studded quartet, Wilde is the only actor with a chance to earn an Oscar nomination for a leading role. And if you ask prediction market traders, the odds for Wilde to get a nomination for Best Actress are quite good.

Wilde currently ranks third on the oddsboard for Best Actress nominations behind the legendary Julianne Moore for her performance in Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut and Inde Navarrette for her role in Curry Barker's Obsession. With Sandra Hüller also likely to earn a nomination for her incredible performance in Fatherland, it does seem likely at this point that Olivia Wilde will be one of five nominees for Best Actress.

If you've seen The Invite, you already know the deal: Penélope Cruz steals the show — as she does in just about every movie she's in. That's why she currently ranks as one of the most likely actresses to score a Best Supporting Actress nomination at this year's Academy Awards.

Anne Hathaway currently ranks as the likeliest to earn a Best Supporting Actress nomination, but after studying Kalshi's Academy Awards markets, we've learned that actors and filmmakers are listed just once even if they're eligible for awards nominations for multiple films. For that reason, it's fair to consider Penélope Cruz as a near-lock to be nominated for her role in The Invite.

Can Edward Norton earn a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his role in The Invite? This may be the best debate of any potential nominations listed on this page. Just five actors will score a nomination in this category, and while Norton continues to hover around the 50% mark, it's a jam-packed field with plenty of competition.

There are a couple of interesting things to note about this market. First of all, because American movies continue to prioritize roles for actors moreso than actresses, the awards category for male actors continue to be slightly more competitive. Another factor is that big-name actors who could have been considered lead actors are instead being floated for supporting actor awards, including Andrew Garfield's depiction of Sam Altman in Artificial, Paul Giamatti's role in The Debut and Sam Rockwell's role in Wild Horse Nine. 

Not only could Olivia Wilde earn an Oscar nomination for her performance as an actor; she's also among the filmmakers most likely to score a Best Director nomination. The odds that directors of technically-complex blockbusters — namely Cristopher Nolan and Denis Villenueve — are tough to beat. Still, this is not the Best Director race we're used to seeing, especially with Steven Spielberg and David Fincher turning in films that haven't gotten a ton of positive critical reception.

At the time of writing, Wilde ranks sixth on the oddsboard for Best Director nominations, and the category will have five nominees. One of the filmmakers in front of Wilde is Nathan Fielder, who co-directed You Can See Everything, a film whose Oscar potential is as unpredictable as the movie itself. It's important to note that the Academy has nominated a woman for Best Director each of the last two years, and Wilde currently ranks far, far higher than any other female director this year.

The Invite was adapted from a 2020 Spanish film The People Upstairs, and the screenplay was written by two screenwriters more popular for their acting work in Rashida Jones and Will McCormack. The Invite is the perfect type of movie to earn a screenplay Oscar nomination, as it's a dialogue-heavy film with more of a focus on the script than technical works of art like The Odyssey and Dune: Part III.

The Invite currently sits at the top of the oddsboard for Best Adapted Screenplay nominees alongside La Bola Negra and The Odyssey, and many of the films that could supplant it to earn one of the five nominations for this category aren't gaining much steam. 

New for the Academy Awards in 2026, the Achievement in Casting award aims to recognize casting directors who've assembled the best cast in a film that year. While The Invite has a small cast — there are literally just four actors in the film — it's definitely a cast that has caught audiences' attention. 

Because Olivia Wilde directed the film and cast herself in one of the four roles, and it's reasonable to assume she hand-picked her cast, it doesn't appear that there's a casting director who would earn this nomination for The Invite. While there are two members of the casting department who casted extras who may be included, this appears to be another opportunity for Wilde to score another Oscar nomination.