You Can See Everything Oscar Odds - A Historic Nomination?

Source: Kalshi, September 17, 2026 | Volume: $13,764 | Settles By: Dec. 31, 2027

With a trailer drop and surprise debut screening at Telluride, You Can See Everything flew to the top of the charts to win Best Documentary Feature at the Academy Awards.

At 46%, only Sometimes, I Imagine Them All at a Party is the only documentary running above it, although it should be noted that in a relatively sparse market, there isn't a ton of volume. That German documentary tells the tale of director Daniela Magnani Hüller's investigation into the attempted murder she survived earlier in life. 

So pitting that heavy subject matter against a seemingly comedic take on the failed Theranos CEO may create a dichotomy that will split the Academy voting bloc into two halves. While the Academy has swung a bit more populist in recent years, the voters in the Documentary category may not see things the same.

There's also Fielder's signature style that may rub voters the wrong way. His best-known works, Nathan for You and The Rehearsal, are not exactly slice-of-life pieces, despite not being scripted with trained actors. Fielder is notorious for manipulating these situations to create the most comedic environments. This makes for great entertainment, but maybe not the most true-to-life documentaries. 

For now, treat You Can See Everything as a likely nomination and a contender to take home the trophy. Just know that a win here is no guarantee.

Source: Kalshi, September 17, 2026 | Volume: $945,543 | Settles By: Dec. 31, 2027

Source: Kalshi, September 17, 2026 | Volume: $5,885,641 | Settles By: Dec. 31, 2027

No documentary has ever received a Best Picture nomination, even since the Academy expanded the category to 10 films in 2009. That makes the film’s 28% chance more noteworthy than it might initially sound.

It is still an outsider, sitting behind I Play Rocky at 32% but ahead of Primetime at 25%. Primetime, Lance Oppenheim's other film releasing this year, is also generating a ton of buzz, particularly for Robert Pattinson for Best Actor. It's possible that this actually works against the Fielder collaboration, as it would also be virtually unprecedented for one director to have two films nominated for Best Picture in the same year. Steven Soderbergh was the last, having directed both Traffic and Erin Brokovich in 2000.

There is a legitimate path into the lineup, but considerably more work to do before calling it likely.

Winning is another proposition entirely. Kalshi gives it just a 2% chance of taking Best Picture, compared with 53% for The Odyssey.

Winning is a massive long shot that's probably not realistic in an Awards Season likely dominated by Christopher Nolan once again.

But a nomination itself would be groundbreaking, and is entirely within the realm of possibility. Fielder has been virtually ignored by Emmy voters over the years, despite critical acclaim for Nathan for You, The Curse, and The Rehearsal. These three series have combined for just two Emmy nominations, both for the last season of The Rehearsal. Meanwhile, Oppenheim's past documentaries, such as Spermworld and Ren Faire, have mainly flown under the radar and have been intriguing festival fodder without any awards attention. 

The 2% win probability shows how far away an actual Best Picture victory remains, but a nomination alone would make Oscar history. At 28%, that possibility can no longer be dismissed as a novelty.