Falcons Week 1 Starter Odds: Penix Moves Ahead of Tua

What once appeared to be Tua Tagovailoa’s job to lose has suddenly become one of NFL’s quarterback competitions. Kalshi currently gives Michael Penix Jr. a 56% chance to start Atlanta’s Week 1 game, ahead of Tagovailoa at 40%. Jack Strand is a distant third at 4%, while Cooper Rush and Trevor Siemian are effectively off the board.

The market’s latest move has been sharp. Penix's odds have jumped 23% since receiving clearance to return from ACL surgery, erasing the large advantage Tua held throughout most of training camp, although Tua's disastrous preseason performances clearly haven't helped his cause either. Penix was cleared for 11-on-11 work on August 22 and began splitting first-team reps with Tagovailoa two days later. 

Head coach Kevin Stefanski has yet to name a starter, leaving Friday’s final preseason game against Miami as a potentially decisive audition. Atlanta opens its regular season at Pittsburgh on September 13.

The simplest argument for Penix is that Atlanta drafted him eighth overall in 2024 to become its long-term quarterback. He entered last season as the full-time starter and completed 60% of his passes for 1,982 yards, and 9 touchdowns to only three interceptions before injuring his knee. 

The Falcons went 3-6 in those starts, but his low interception total and flashes as a downfield passer gave the organization reason to continue investing in him. Even if he struggled at times, there were flashes of the upside he showed at Washington.

More importantly, the biggest obstacle to Penix starting Week 1 has now been removed, at least for the time being. His health has always been the question mark. During his first full-team practice, Penix received a nearly even share of first-team snaps, showing that he has a chance to make this a real competition at the 11th hour.

He still might not be ready to start the season, though. Penix has had no work against a live defense in nearly a year and must learn a new offense while returning from a significant knee injury. Atlanta may still decide that opening the season with Tua is the safer option.

However, the Falcons have little reason to delay evaluating Penix if he is fully healthy. Tua isn't the future franchise QB, and Atlanta needs time to evaluate if they still believe Penix can become that.

If not for his health, Penix would be the unquestioned starter, but the shortened injury timeline might make 56% look like a bit much.

Tagovailoa’s case is built on readiness and experience. He's had some success as a starter, with a44-32 career record, and led the league in passing in 2023. Stefanski’s offense should also suit him, using Bijan Robinson and the wide-zone running game to create defined reads and quick, rhythm throws, theoretically not dissimilar to the offense he saw success with in Miami.

Tua has also spent nearly the entire offseason ahead of Penix. He took the full-team snaps while Penix was limited to individual and seven-on-seven work, allowing him to build timing with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Atlanta’s other starters in the new offense. Because this market concerns only Week 1, the Falcons could start Tua in Pittsburgh without changing their longer-term commitment to Penix.

The problem is that Tua has completely fumbled the opportunity to lock up the role while Penix has missed preseason time. He was uninspiring against Denver and has reportedly not been much better in 11-on-11s throughout training camp. The market has responded strongly to this, and the swing from Tua above 75% over the weekend to just 40% today speaks volumes to where this battle may be heading.

Still, with the odds sitting where they are, Tua might be the better bet. This way, Atlanta buys Penix some more time to get up to speed and recover.

Atlanta wraps up the preseason Friday against Miami, with Tua expected to play and Penix's status unclear. This is the last hurdle, and an announcement will probably be made shortly after this final test.