Comeback Player of the Year Odds - Mahomes Leads Entering the Season

The Comeback Player of the Year Award is an interesting one because its definition is pretty subjective. What exactly constitutes a comeback? Nobody really knows. The name also implies that a player was established in the first place, which makes it a little confusing to see names like Travis Hunter and J.J. McCarthy included in the odds.

Still, it's one of the more triumphant awards in the NFL. Winning CPOY usually means overcoming some form of adversity and following it up with a great season. This year's field is loaded with superstar-level names trying to do exactly that.

The candidates are here for all sorts of reasons. Some are returning from major injuries, others are getting a fresh start with a new team, coming out of retirement, or simply trying to bounce back from a bad season. Regardless of how we define a "comeback," each of the top five candidates has a legitimate case if things go right this year.

Let's look at the odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook and break down why each player could become the next Comeback Player of the Year.

Patrick Mahomes already has all the big trophies. He's won OPOY, MVP, the Super Bowl, and Super Bowl MVP. This season, he has a good chance to add another award to that collection with Comeback Player of the Year.

I'm not sure what type of magical serum Mahomes had access to this offseason to get him ready for Week 1, but here we are. It makes sense that he's the frontrunner for multiple reasons, with the biggest being simple: he's Patrick Mahomes. Until someone takes it from him, Mahomes is still the face of the NFL.

This also wouldn't just be a comeback from injury. It would be a comeback from a season where the Chiefs' dynasty suddenly looked like it might be over. If Mahomes returns to form and brings Kansas City back into Super Bowl contention, voters could easily view that as one of the league's biggest comeback stories.

Personally, I think Comeback Player of the Year should go to someone who missed more than three games the previous season. But if Mahomes looks anything like his former self, this award is his to lose.

Out of respect for Jayden Daniels, I should probably stop this list at #4. Memes aside, Daniels is one of the most intriguing candidates for CPOY. We've really only seen what he can do for one full season, but it was an electric one. As a rookie, Daniels led a surprising Commanders team all the way to the NFC Championship and even found himself in the MVP conversation deep into the season. 

Injuries slowed him down before eventually keeping Daniels out for most of last season. Because of that, it feels like people have already forgotten just how quickly his career was taking off. Daniels went from rookie quarterback to one of the most exciting young players in football almost immediately. If he can get back to that level, the comeback narrative practically writes itself.

Washington did add Stefon Diggs, which helps fill out a wide receiver room that needed it. Still, the question this season won't just be whether Daniels can stay healthy. It's also whether there's enough talent around him for the Commanders to get back to where they were during his rookie year. Weirdly, doing more with less could even help his CPOY case. Daniels carried a lot of the load as a rookie, and he may have to do it again. If he stays healthy, puts Washington back in the playoff picture, and looks anything like the quarterback we saw two years ago, he'll be right near the top of the CPOY conversation.

Kyler Murray has been given another shot at being a starting quarterback in the NFL after beating out J.J. McCarthy for the QB1 spot on the Vikings. His seven-year run with the Cardinals came to an end after he was benched for Jacoby Brissett last season.

The former #1 pick has never lacked talent, but consistency has been a different story. The Vikings are hoping they can bring the best version of Kyler back. We've seen in recent years that sometimes all it takes is a change of scenery for a quarterback to turn his career around. Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are two recent examples of high draft picks who changed the trajectory of their careers after getting another chance. Murray hopes to be next in line, and he landed in a great place to do it.

Minnesota could be the perfect new home for Murray. Kevin O'Connell has a strong track record of getting the most out of his quarterbacks, Justin Jefferson is a top-two receiver in the league, and the Vikings already have one of the NFL's better defenses.

If he can get back to playing his best football, Murray won't just have a strong case for CPOY. The Vikings could become a legitimate contender in the NFC.

Aaron Donald is a unique case for CPOY because he left the NFL on his own terms. Usually, the comeback player is someone who fell victim to unfortunate circumstances, but Donald was still on top when he walked away. Still, returning and playing at a high level after years on the couch (or in the gym, in Donald's case) would definitely be worthy of CPOY consideration.

To be clear, it is still uncertain if Aaron Donald plans to return to the NFL this season, even though he has put the pads back on and participated in team drills with the Rams. He wants to feel things out and test his readiness before ultimately deciding whether he wants to play.

No matter how long AD has been away from football, playing alongside Myles Garrett would be a scary sight for the rest of the league. He wouldn't even have to be the best player on the D-line anymore. Donald and Garrett are probably the two best defensive players of the last 15 years, and putting them together almost feels unfair.

If AD decides to run it back and chase another ring, I have little doubt that he'll still be an impactful player. If that's the case, he'll have a strong argument for Comeback Player of the Year.

Malik Nabers probably has the most traditional CPOY case on this list. He was already one of the best young receivers in football before tearing his ACL and meniscus in Week 4 last season, limiting him to just four games. Unfortunately, there are still questions about his current recovery status. Nabers recently returned to live 11-on-11 drills, but John Harbaugh has stopped short of guaranteeing he'll be ready for Week 1.

We don't have to guess what a healthy Nabers looks like. As a rookie, he caught 109 passes for 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns despite playing in a bad Giants offense. That was good enough for a Pro Bowl selection, and he finished fifth in the NFL in receptions and seventh in receiving yards.

What makes Nabers especially interesting this year is the situation around him. Jaxson Dart showed enough as a rookie to give the Giants some real optimism at quarterback, and Nabers should immediately return as his #1 target. If Dart takes another step and Nabers stays healthy, there's no reason he can't put up numbers that rival or even surpass his rookie season.