Will an NFL Team Go Worst to First This Year?

Just about every season, a team in the NFL jumps from the bottom of its division to the top. In fact, this has happened in 20 of the last 23 seasons since divisions were re-aligned in 2002.

Last season saw the Bears and the Pats pull this off, and this year's group has some. interesting contenders. 

Kalshi is currently projecting a 61% chance of a worst to first team this year (although, it should be noted that this market only has $725 of trading volume at the time of publication, so that projection may change).

Let's take a look at the contenders.

Detroit tops the list of contenders at +175, and it makes sense. They don't feel like a last-place team, coming off a 9-8 season. 

The Lions finished fourth through a tiebreaker after going 9-8, tying Minnesota and finishing only two games behind the division-winning Bears. They also had a point differential of +68, giving Detroit the statistical profile of a playoff contender rather than a last-place team.

The biggest question is whether the rebuilt offensive line can protect Jared Goff. Detroit ranked 31st in pass-block win rate last season before moving Penei Sewell to left tackle, signing Cade Mays and drafting Blake Miller. 

If that group holds up, Goff still has Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta around him.

There are more concerns on defense, particularly in the secondary, but the Lions are easily the strongest team on this list. 

It makes sense that Detroit is the favorite, but in a division with Green Bay and Chicago, you may find better value in another candidate.

The Saints may not be as talented as Detroit, but they have a much easier path to winning their division.

Carolina won the NFC South at just 8-9 last season, finishing with the same record as Tampa Bay and Atlanta. New Orleans was only two games behind that group and ended the season by winning four of its last five games. A 9-win season could realistically be enough to take the division.

Tyler Shough showed significant improvement late in his rookie season, and the Saints added Travis Etienne to an offense that should also have a healthy Chris Olave. Unfortunately, first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson will open the season on injured reserve after suffering a hamstring injury during training camp.

New Orleans still has questions on defense and needs Shough to prove his late-season progress was real. However, the NFC South was by far the worst division in football last season. 

At +255, the Saints probably offer the best value.

We've reached the point where it starts to feel like real longshots, but the Giants are still being given a puncher's chance at DraftKings.

John Harbaugh is opening the season as the Coach of the Year frontrunner and immediately gives New York more credibility after a 4-13 season. The Giants also performed slightly better than their record suggests, finishing with a -58 point differential despite lthe record

Jaxson Dart showed enough as a rookie to create optimism about a second-year jump, while Cam Skattebo gives the offense an identity on the ground. Malik Nabers has also progressed in his recovery from a torn ACL and is trending toward a possible Week 1 return.

The defensive front still features Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, and their new first-rounder Arvell Reese, although losing Dexter Lawrence removes its best interior player on a team that was already weak against the run. 

New York must also get past an Eagles team that has won consecutive NFC East titles, plus Dallas and Washington, who are both projected to finish above the Giants.

The Harbaugh-Dart combination gives the Giants an exciting possible ceiling, but +600 is still a bit short in a tough division. They probably need Nabers healthy and Dart to become a top-half quarterback immediately to have any shot.

Tennessee’s entire case rests on Cam Ward making a major leap in his second season.

The Titans brought in Robert Saleh as head coach and Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator, giving Ward a staff with a strong track record of developing quarterbacks and building effective systems. Wan’Dale Robinson and first-round receiver Carnell Tate should also provide more support than Ward had during an up-and-down rookie year.

Saleh should also improve things on the defensive side of the ball.

The problem is the size of the gap. Tennessee went 3-14 and finished 0-6 in the division. Jacksonville went 13-4, while Houston finished 12-5. The Titans could improve by five wins and still finish well behind both teams.

Jacksonville and Houston aren't exactly pencilled in as Super Bowl contenders, but Tennessee still has a lot of ground to make up.

At +800, the market is betting heavily that Ward will become a franchise quarterback and the new coaching staff can right the ship almost immediately. Tennessee is interesting, but they still have an uphill battle ahead.

We've crossed the threshold from long shots to miracles.

Even a substantial improvement would probably only move New York toward the middle of the AFC East, far behind New England and Buffalo. Winning it would require the Jets to make an immediate leap while multiple teams ahead of them fall backward.

There are plausible reasons to expect a better season. There is not a particularly plausible path to first place.

It's more likely the Jets fire their coach and trade off players halfway through the year than it is that they contend for the division.

Las Vegas has essentially the same problem.

The Raiders can improve considerably and still finish last in the loaded AFC West. They would need their offense to come together immediately while simultaneously receiving help from every team ahead of them.

It's not completely out of the question that Fernando Mendoza is a stud from day 1, but even then, it would be a Herculean task to push them towards the playoffs.

I actually like their chances much more than the Jets', just due to the X-Factors of Mendoza and a possible breakout sophomore campaign from Ashton Jeanty, behind an improved offensive line. Still wouldn't bet it, unfortunately.

A team with Jacoby Brissett and Carson Beck slated to start at quarterback, versus the Rams, 49ers, and the defending Super Bowl Champion Seahawks. 100-to-1 isn't nearly long enough. 

Arizona much more likely to have the worst record in the NFL than to seriously contend for anything this season.

The March for Arch starts now.

Cleveland’s divisional path isn't the most daunting, but the Browns still have too many questions to be taken seriously as an AFC North contender.

A strong defense may keep them competitive in individual games, but even that will take a hit this year with the departure of Myles Garrett. Unless the quarterback play improves dramatically, however, there is little reason to believe Cleveland can sustain a division-winning season. With Deshaun Watson starting at least one game, there's very little chance of that happening early in the season.

All of these question marks, plus the historically bad vibes surrounding this organization, make it hard to justify backing them, even at +2100.