AP Photo/Mike Stewart
2026 Home Run Derby Betting Preview
Home Run Derby Betting Preview
The 2026 Home Run Derby field is nearly set! With the addition of betting favorite Kyle Schwarber to the derby on Friday, just one spot remains open. And while most sportsbooks are waiting for the eighth hitter to officially join, Kalshi is already offering trading markets on the Home Run Derby that you can jump on right now.
Here's how the 2026 Home Run Derby odds are currently shaping up on Kalshi.
2026 Home Run Derby Winner Odds
| Kyle Schwarber | 31% |
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| Junior Caminero | 24% |
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| Bryce Harper | 20% |
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| Jordan Walker | 18% |
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| Ben Rice | 15% |
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| Jac Caglianone | 13% |
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| Willson Contreras | 7% |
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After his inclusion in the field on Friday afternoon, Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is favored to win the event in front of his home crowd. Bryce Harper is also representing the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Monday, and between the two, they present excellent odds that fans in Philly will see a hometown slugger hoist the trophy at the end of the night.
Junior Caminero nearly won the derby in 2025 before falling to Cal Raleigh in the championship round. Can he take the leap and win it all in 2026? Kalshi currently has Caminero with the second-best odds, and after tallying an astonishing 10 homers in nine games earlier this summer, he's as smart a pick as anyone.
If you've watched the Home Run Derby on ESPN for the past handful of years, you've seen hitters attempting to launch as many home runs as possible within a timed period. That chaotic, exhausting derby style has been eschewed for a new format in 2026 that's more similar to old school Home Run Derby rules.
This year, the derby on Netflix will continue to feature a first round of eight hitters followed by a four-man semifinal and a championship round. The timer, however, is no more. Hitters will instead receive 20 swings in the first round and 15 swings in the second and final rounds, with the ability to keep hitting after their final swing as long as they continue to hit home runs.
Want to pick a Home Run Derby winner with some longer odds and better value? A few MLB youngsters could earn you more in winnings by outlasting the aforementioned veterans.
Jordan Walker has been a revelation for the Cardinals this year, increasing his offensive output year-over-year more than any player in MLB. Joining Caminero atop the MLB bat speed leaderboard so far this year, Walker could be a savvy pick to surprise derby viewers this year.
Two lefty power hitters from the AL — Ben Rice of the Yankees and Jac Caglianone of the Royals — also give Home Run Derby bettors an interesting option. The porch is a bit shorter in right center than in left at Citizens Bank, so it's possible that a young rookie could take advantage of the dimensions and launch enough homers to make it interesting.
Kalshi
Get a jump on your Home Run Derby predictions this year with Kalshi. While sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings are waiting to open their betting markets until the full derby field is revealed, Kalshi became the first prediction market to offer trades on the Home Run Derby winner this week. Don't want to wait until the day of the derby to lock in your pick? Sign up and trade with Kalshi today!
Home Run Derby Final Selection Odds
| Hunter Goodman | 36% |
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| Munetaka Murakami | 30% |
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| James Wood | 15% |
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| Andy Pages | 7% |
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Mark is a lifelong sports fan who inherited rooting interests in the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers. After a decade in sports media covering sports betting as a writer, editor and producer, Mark brought his long track record of sports experience to the Sportsbooks Online team in early 2025.
