Who Will Win the Presidents Cup? USA Opens as Heavy Favorite

The Ryder Cup gets more attention, but the Presidents Cup is still a big opportunity for golfers to represent their country. Team USA has won 13 of the 15 competitions, including 10 straight dating back to 2005. The International Team’s only victory came all the way back in 1998.

That history makes it easy to understand why the Americans are heavily favored again. The 2026 Presidents Cup will be played from September 24–27 at Medinah Country Club outside Chicago, giving Team USA home-course advantage on top of what already looks like the stronger roster.

Scottie Scheffler leads an American team that also features Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Chris Gotterup, Jacob Bridgeman, and Jackson Koivun. 

The International Team counters with Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Ryan Fox, Adam Scott, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Nico Echavarria, Ryo Hisatsune, and Nick Taylor.

Traders on Kalshi give Team USA an 81% chance of winning, compared to just 16% for the International Team. Those odds may look lopsided, but they are difficult to argue with considering the talent gap and the event’s history.

The argument for Team USA starts with talent. Its six automatic qualifiers all ranked inside the top 11 in the world when the team was assembled. That was before captain Brandt Snedeker added Schauffele, Cantlay, Thomas, Gotterup, Bridgeman, and Koivun with his six selections.

Scheffler gives the Americans the best player in the competition, but their advantage goes much deeper than one name. Morikawa, Schauffele, Thomas, and Cantlay are proven major champions, with plenty of other accomplished options on the roster.

Team USA also has several natural pairings available. Cantlay and Schauffele have years of success together, while Thomas always plays his best in team events. The rookies introduce some uncertainty, but Gotterup, Bridgeman, and Koivun earned their spots through strong recent play. Koivun is only 21, but won the 3M Open shortly after turning professional.

Then there is the history. The United States owns a 13-1-1 record and has won the last 10 Presidents Cups. Even when the International Team has assembled a competitive roster, it has struggled to turn individual talent into enough points across four days.

Home-course advantage only makes that task harder. The International Team has never won a Presidents Cup in the United States. Team USA is deeper, more experienced at the top, and playing in front of its own crowd. There is a reason the market gives it better than an 80% chance.

The International Team has more quality than the odds might suggest. Matsuyama is a major champion, while Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim have already shown that they are comfortable with the emotion of team golf. Min Woo Lee, Ryan Fox, Corey Conners, and Sungjae Im give captain Geoff Ogilvy several flexible pairing options. Adam Scott has a losing career record in this event, but nobody on either side has more Presidents Cup experience. 

Team USA is not completely free of questions, either. Three of Snedeker’s captain’s picks are making their Presidents Cup debuts, and Justin Thomas has endured an inconsistent season following back surgery. He recently withdrew from his final planned tune-up event before Medinah, leaving some uncertainty around his form and health. Even Scottie Scheffler has a questionable track record in match play, with the Ryder Cup potentially exposing that as his one true weakness.

Medinah hosted Europe’s famous comeback in the 2012 Ryder Cup, when the Americans blew a 10-6 lead on the final day. This is a different event and a completely different roster, but the course has seen an overwhelming favorite collapse before. Team USA should win. However, if the International Team can keep the score close through the opening team sessions, the pressure will shift quickly. After 10 straight losses, it has almost nothing to lose.